7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, Sept. 10, 2004

[vbhoutex]

Currently the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near latitude 16.3 north, longitude 74.7 west, or about 165 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica. Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph and this motion is expected to bring the center of Ivan to near Jamaica tonight. The maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph with
higher gusts. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely
over the higher terrain of portions of Jamaica. Fluctuations in intensity are likely and Ivan could become even stronger as he nears Jamaica since he is moving into an area conducive to some strengthening. With Hurricane force winds extending outward up to 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extending outward up
to 175 miles the southeastern coast of Jamaica could beging to feel his effects soon. The latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconaaissance plane was 934 mb or 27.58 inches. It appears that Ivan is currently going through some fluctuation in strength but is expected to begin another strengthening trend as he approaches Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba for about the next 48 hours. After this time the landmass of Cuba and some increasing vertical shear is expected to weaken Ivan some as he enters the Gulf of Mexico, but he should remain a very strong and dangerous Hurricane. Guidance is in good agreement through the next 48 hours on the track of Ivan as he moves across Jamaica and Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. After that time frame some models take Ivan up the West coast of Florida while others keep him further offshore and take him furhter North prior to any US landfall.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic tropical basin no tropical storm activity is expected through Saturday.

This is not an official product. For official products with details of the possible effects of Hurricane Ivan in your area contact the NHC or your local weather service office.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)