I quess I will continue my Rant!

[30N90W]

Models are just that, ONLY MODELS! This includes the FSU model.

I see a lot of posters on this board talk about the GFS pointing a hurricane at some local FIVE DAYS OUT and attempting to create a panic for that particular area.

Last winter the GFS predicted TWO massive freeze / snow event in southeast LA. Funny it never got below freezing in New Orleans nor did it snow anywhere close to New Orleans.

Again the data points for all these models are spotty at best. The recon does impove the initial conditions around the storm but ( I am in Data Analysis by trade) to get a true DEFINATIVE picture of all the synoptic players you really need exponentially more data points. I see it all the time how spotty data points can make a big difference to the true reality of a situation.

[dennis1x1]

however, the models can outpredict any human so they are the best we have right now and god bless them for what they can do...

the problem is definitely the medias overreporting on their results however

[Anonymous]

I have been harping on this exact issue for years.

YOU CANNOT FOCUS ON A 5 DAY PROJECTED PATH! NO WAY...NO HOW.

And this is exactly what the news media prays upon. As soon as the NHC projects some sort of landfall prediction along the U.S. coast, it's all he!! breaking loose.

It is out of control.

[mobilebay]

however, the models can outpredict any human so they are the best we have right now and god bless them for what they can do...

the problem is definitely the medias overreporting on their results however

Remember any track to the right could bring Ivan in along that loved Florida Peninsula. What about a track further west? :roll: There was no mention of that, and more models point to that solution than the first. Help me I don't understand. IS Tampa more important that say APP. or Destin?