Keep This In Mind About GOM Shear...

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Hurricane Cheese
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Keep This In Mind About GOM Shear...

#1 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Sat Sep 11, 2004 12:39 pm

The longer Ivan continues to go west, the longer it will take him to enter the GOM.

Thus, there is a chance all that shear that the NHC forecasted will have subsided by the time he enters the gulf. Notice how they haven't mentioned the shear the last couple forecasts and now have Ivan hitting FL as a Cat 4 (135 mph).

Just something to consider if we continue to see this westward jog....


And thank God it spared Jamaica!
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#2 Postby Hurrilurker » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:54 pm

Not only that, but the more west he goes in the Gulf, the warmer the waters (avoiding that cool patch around the crotch of Florida).
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#3 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:09 pm

I noticed in the water vapor loop that the clouds along the frontal boundary north of 25N are moving north while the clouds south of 25N along the front are moving south. By Monday the subtropical ridge may push through in the middle. Even with the gulf completely covered by a high pressure dome Ivan should continue his recurve. If there is no trough the model tracks may swing as far west as New Orleans. I don't want to even think about what the intensity would be.
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