Forget the Models for now

[Downdraft]

When storms become this intense they make their own weather. All bets are off this storm will go where it wants to now. Ivan is a monster no other way to describe it.

[Josephine96]

That's true They can produce their own environments when they get this strong

[air360]

hmm...as unconventional as that comment is...in many aspects you are totally right....not much can quickly affect a cat 5:)

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, with the steering currents getting weaker and weaker, I'm not sure the models will have much of a grip on this system, anyway.

[cind52]

Well, with the steering currents getting weaker and weaker, I'm not sure the models will have much of a grip on this system, anyway.

Sean do have a feeling new orleans will get hit by this storm? marrero girl here

[corpusbreeze]

remeber Gilbert? They kept saying Galveston, but he chose to go to Mexico.

[otowntiger]

hmm...as unconventional as that comment is...in many aspects you are totally right....not much can quickly affect a cat 5:)

Thats not necessarily true. From what I understand and have seen in all the years I've tracked hurricanes is that it takes perfect rare conditions for a cat 5 to stay cat 5. As we've already seen with this storm it can weaken just as quickly as it can strengthen. Yesterday the pressure rose just as fast as it is dropping now. The slightest shear or hindrance to outflow could weaken it pretty quickly by at least one catergory on the Saffir Simpson scale. Now the issue is that since he has gotton so strong the winds would take longer to drop off but would still come down at the same rate.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, with the steering currents getting weaker and weaker, I'm not sure the models will have much of a grip on this system, anyway.

Sean do have a feeling new orleans will get hit by this storm? marrero girl here

No, I don't think it's coming here, at this point. I think it will likely hit from Mobile to Destin. With that said, it isn't out of the question that New Orleans could get hit. Steering currents are extremely weak in the Gulf and we do need to watch closely. At this point, though, I believe a New Orleans hit is unlikely. Now--percentages of a New Orleans hit are increasing and they are decreasing for a majority of the State of Florida outside of the panhandle. Just watch closely.

[cind52]

Well, with the steering currents getting weaker and weaker, I'm not sure the models will have much of a grip on this system, anyway.

Sean do have a feeling new orleans will get hit by this storm? marrero girl here

No, I don't think it's coming here, at this point. I think it will likely hit from Mobile to Destin. With that said, it isn't out of the question that New Orleans could get hit. Steering currents are extremely weak in the Gulf and we do need to watch closely. At this point, though, I believe a New Orleans hit is unlikely. Now--percentages of a New Orleans hit are increasing and they are decreasing for a majority of the State of Florida outside of the panhandle. Just watch closely.

Thanks for the insight. I'm on the wwl forum.

[Air Force Met]

hmm...as unconventional as that comment is...in many aspects you are totally right....not much can quickly affect a cat 5:)

That's incorrect. Cat 5's are very delicate creations. They are hard to maintain and are very susceptible to shear and any minor fluctuation. Then...you don't have a cat 5 anymore...but a cat 3 or 4.

Think logically for a moment. If nothing could quickly affect a cat 5...then once a storm gets to cat 5 it should stay there for a while...but that doesn't happen. They stay there for 12 hours or so...maybe a little more or a little less. Why...because they are easily affected by changes.

And.a cat 5 can modify its environment...that is true...but in the presence of just a minor shortwave trough...it will be turned. It is not some omnipotent entity that has its own mind and will go where it wants. The biggest badest hurricane ever will always move north when a shortwave trough (and not even a major one) is located to its west. The trough wins every time.

[air360]

hmm...as unconventional as that comment is...in many aspects you are totally right....not much can quickly affect a cat 5:)

That's incorrect. Cat 5's are very delicate creations. They are hard to maintain and are very susceptible to shear and any minor fluctuation. Then...you don't have a cat 5 anymore...but a cat 3 or 4.

Think logically for a moment. If nothing could quickly affect a cat 5...then once a storm gets to cat 5 it should stay there for a while...but that doesn't happen. They stay there for 12 hours or so...maybe a little more or a little less. Why...because they are easily affected by changes.

And.a cat 5 can modify its environment...that is true...but in the presence of just a minor shortwave trough...it will be turned. It is not some omnipotent entity that has its own mind and will go where it wants. The biggest badest hurricane ever will always move north when a shortwave trough (and not even a major one) is located to its west. The trough wins every time.

yes i know cat 5's can be disrupted very easily...maybe i worded what i said wrong...i was just agreeing with what downdraft had said about how large storms can make their own weather...

[Lockhart]

Thanks, AirForceMet. Nice analysis.