The Ridge may end up protecting GOM west of FL... Mexico?

[ericinmia]

If Ivan were to head north into that ridge strengthening and building over the gulf coast states right now, he would be pushed westward underneath it toward mexico.
I'm tired of many things, and exhausted...
Add your thoughts/ideas/whatever...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
-Eric

[WeatherNLU]

Interesting to see you switching your thinking, if that's what you are saying.

[PurdueWx80]

I, too, thought about this possibility at one point. I don't think it will happen now, as there is excellent agreement on some sort of minor trough/weakness in the ridge that would pull Ivan north. Now I THINK anywhere west of Louisiana is ok, but we should all keep our guard up for a few more days. This storm has been defying the majority of thoughts since day 1, so we should still expect more suprises out of him.

Also, I think that since this ridge is expected to be stronger to the east of Ivan, we can expect the GFS's and other model's forecast shear to be less, which obviously implies a stronger storm. The next few days will probably be the most intriguing of the entire hurricane season in my mind.

[mobilebay]

I, too, thought about this possibility at one point. I don't think it will happen now, as there is excellent agreement on some sort of minor trough/weakness in the ridge that would pull Ivan north. Now I THINK anywhere west of Louisiana is ok, but we should all keep our guard up for a few more days. This storm has been defying the majority of thoughts since day 1, so we should still expect more suprises out of him.

Also, I think that since this ridge is expected to be stronger to the east of Ivan, we can expect the GFS's and other model's forecast shear to be less, which obviously implies a stronger storm. The next few days will probably be the most intriguing of the entire hurricane season in my mind.

I'm going to be honest. the models have been so for from reality that the best thing to do is just watch. With the way the models have performed nobody on the Gulf Coast is in the clear.

[canegrl04]

Its difficult to have a Cat 4,and hurricane like Frances to be overshadowed in a single season,but looks like Ivan will.

[ColdFront77]

If Ivan were further north at this moment, the chances of a westward movement would definately be higher.

[ericinmia]

I have lost it.... completely....

i give up. i'm not going to predict the outcome of this game, but just going to watch it inning by inning.
-eric

[Dean4Storms]

You can easily see the weakness in the central GOM where the Convection lines up, this signals convergence and the western extent of the ridge. This is where most of the guidance runs Ivan northward, alot like what you see with a true front and a low getting absorbed into it.

[ericinmia]

only thing is that the bermuda high is creeping back in to be over northern florida.... if it bridges with the texan high across the entire northern gulf.... then what???

[Weatherboy1]

While Ivan has been wobbling all over the place -- NW at times, SW at times -- the general movement has been westward for about a day. But it has been very slow and appears to be getting even slower on satellite. In fact, I'd call its recent movement a crawl. What is truly amazing about the global models here is that they have been consistently forecasting NW and N turns ... and consistently have been wrong. I think this just goes to show that when you have very weak steering currents, almost anything can happen. I still believe based on everything I've read and seen that South FL is safe at this point and the North/NE Gulf is under the gun. But if this stall lasts for a while, then who knows? The storm could just end up in Mexico.