NHC playing major CYA....

[Guest]

but they have a right to theses days as they catch hell from someone everytime a storm is brewing. Those guys do a great job! We are the problem! We anticipate so much ahead of time. Lets dont forget, what we know, and that is that we can be reasonably sure of a path up to 72 hours with low margin of error. However, even in that time frame there will always be an outlier (change in weather pattern) ready to screw up the forecast for them. Right now they are obligated to make Floridians feel protected and informed, there is nothing wrong with that, nothing at all. Besides if the storm did pull a right hook, like we have all seen at one time or another in our hurricane life, then they have done their job. I'm sure as time passes and things do become more clear. They will notify the Northern Gulf Coast in an appropriate time frame, if and when it is necessary. Like I said a day ago, I can remember a time when we use to only require 24 hrs to prepare. People need to use common sense. I bet right now in Mobile, Al. there are individuals going out and purchasing lots of supplies. The only problem with that, still 3 days from our area, is that it encourages others to go out and fill up, causing unnecessary panic when we are under no immediate threat. Just be patient folks.

My take right now on the progress of the storm is....continuing wnw through the channel, the dipping trough is of medium intensity and will pus past the area by Tuesday morning, allowing for some weakness to give Ivan a more northerly component. Stay tuned.....

[sea oat]

Lets dont forget, what we know, and that is that we can be reasonably sure of a path up to 72 hours with low margin of error.

newbie question. so when does that 72 hour window open up and who determines that window?

[patsmsg]

Frederic, while I agree with most of what you say here, I don't see where it is imprudent for folks on the North Gulf Coast to get supplies.

I certainly have, and I don't believe I was "causing unnecessary panic". For the most part they should have been stocked long ago at the beginning of the season.

Also, for what it's worth, our local Super Wal-mart had no bottled water last week ( I assume the supplies were diverted to FL), and all the generators have been snatched up by FL evacuees from Charley and taken back to Florida, so finding supplies may take a while.