Tampa AFD

[Rainband]

Until they are certain. I will be watching


000
FXUS62 KTBW 130609
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...ONE LAST DAY OF CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS.
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN WILL KEEP 40 POPS ALL AREAS
TODAY. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING UP FROM THE CARIB
OVERNIGHT SO WILL LEAVE SCT POPS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TUE/WED WX EXPECTED TO GET ACTIVE FROM IVAN. NHC NOW PUTS TRACK INTO
EAST CENTRAL GULF TUE/WED ABOUT 200+ MILES WEST OF AREA BEACHES.
EXPECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE S AND FEEL THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE STORM. HAVE DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...BUT KEPT
LIKELY...AS TRACK CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. WINDS STILL TO BE
BREEZY AS TS FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO
KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO. LARGE SURF EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES
TUE/WED PRODUCING STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...WITH IVAN NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL WEST
OF THE AREA...THE ONLY EFFECTS WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WED
NIGHT BECOMING S THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND NEAR THE
COAST. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND PERHAPS
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/OVERWASH ON THE NATURE COAST...BUT THAT MAY BE
IT UNLESS THE STORM TAKES A QUICK RIGHT TURN.

WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT PCPN FCST WED NIGHT...BUT TWEAK UP TO NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THURS AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
AND DIMINISHING S FLOW SHOULD INCREASE CONVERGENCE.

DEEP LAYER DRYING APPEARS ON TRACK FOR FRI THROUGH SUN WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. EXPECT ONLY ISOLD/SCT MAINLY AFTN PCPN EACH
DAY WITH NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO S FLOW...BUT SHOULD DROP TO NEAR NORMAL (U60S TO
L70S) BY SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN FCST TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATER TODAY AND THEN THE SOUTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT...GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THE
HURRICANE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
IVAN MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF PRODUCING HIGH SURF OF
EPIC PROPORTIONS. MARINERS SHOULD STAY ADVISED OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NHC FOR HURRICANE IVAN. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WET AND BREEZY WITH DISPERSION INDICES INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY.

&&

TPA 90 76 87 77 / 40 20 70 70
FMY 90 76 87 76 / 40 30 70 60
GIF 90 74 87 75 / 40 20 70 60
SRQ 90 75 87 76 / 40 20 70 70
BKV 90 75 87 76 / 40 20 70 70


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

RD/BG

Looks like as the hours pass we look safer and safer but comments like those make me think twice.

[ay]

If that's the worst that happens, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

BTW, big thumbs down to Channel 8 for still showing us in the cone about 8 hours after all others had taken us out of it. I know things can change, but this was the crap I used to deal with in South Florida...people I disagree with at their worst.

[cape_escape]

I'm feeling pretty good right now down here in Cape Coral, and my prayers are with those who are now in the cone! I have to admit, comments like the above mentioned do add a little apprehension, however I really feel that we are out of the woods here!

[Brent]

Tampa is fine. Every westward shift decreases your chances dramatically. I'm starting to have my doubts whether this will even landfall in the Panhandle.

[dixiebreeze]

Agree, Rainband, I feel better this morning, but in no way am I letting my guard down. 'Canes can be very capricious when they actually get into the GOM. Plenty of examples in the past.

[Toro694]

Rainband relax, this thing is going away. But if you keep wishing, maybe just maybe......

[caneman]

Tampa is fine. Every westward shift decreases your chances dramatically. I'm starting to have my doubts whether this will even landfall in the Panhandle.

I wholeheartedly disagree with this statement. This now apparant slow crawl will allow time for the next front to come down and take it NE. No one is out of the woods yet.

[Deana Cuevas]

I'm with you caneman. Ivan is crawling. I'm worried about the front. The way I see it is between the 2 high's there is no place else to go but East. I'm worried in Tampa. Any thoughts?

[Rainband]

Rainband relax, this thing is going away. But if you keep wishing, maybe just maybe......

I will kind because this is your first post and prob haven't read too many. IN no way am I a wishcaster. I have a mother that lives on the water and have been through misery with frances. Please refrain from using that term on this site again

[ay]

Its fine to speculate, but so far the experts keep reducing the Tampa probability. On friday it was at 14, now 6. I'll pay attention to them. All along they have said that anything beyond 72 hours was very unreliable, but they seem to have confidence in the next 2-3 days. Well we are less than 48 hrs until it should pass by the bay area, and I haven't seen any significant change.

Obviously it could change, and we'll keep watching, but I suggest we rely on the experts and not worry ourselves into a frenzy.

And I live very close to the water in South Tampa, so I do have a vested interest in this.

[tronbunny]

When the NWS puts out a statement like:

"unless the storm takes a quick right turn"

you better pay attention.

Again, not that it will, but to even broadcast the possibility....

[Josephine96]

True,,

[Toro694]

Ay , I agree with you. It is amazing sometimes reading the frenzied postings of individuals here. When you are in the cone and the storm is trending your way, that is one thing. Stay alert and aware. That is when this board is indispensible, and the posts here are full of valid concerns and info. But to worry about things that do not follow the NHC, models or trends is ridiculous. And sorry, but I do think a little of it is -removed- by some here.

PS - And although these are my first posts, I have read enough here over the last month to have an idea the subject I have just addressed.