5 PM Ivan heading more Right....

Stormtrack03 · #1 Postby **Stormtrack03** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:39 pm

.. in the long term. the more NW motion today than expected is causing Ivan's track to be changed more right. Indeed it may go left in the short term but as it gfets closer to the gulf it will turn more east toward the panhandle. The NHC is even discounting the NOGAPS model which has it a New Orleans landfall

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:41 pm

I still wouldn't rule out the West Coast with this potential right shift

manofsteele79 · #3 Postby **manofsteele79** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:43 pm

It's no more right than the 2PM. It's right on the AL/FL border. Also, Stewart said this is temporary movement because one trough was lifting out and another one is coming in that will move the storm more NW.

rtd2 · #4 Postby **rtd2** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:45 pm

I agree the "SHORT TERM " north mvt. was forecasted. once that trough completly clears wnw should resume!

#5 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:46 pm

Landfall is NOT at the AL/FL border as of the 5pm advisory.
Plot the 18Z position on Wednesday and the 18Z position on Thursday, draw a straight line between the two, and it crosses the coast just east of the Destin airport, in the area of Seaside (where I was married, BTW).

Josephine96 · #6 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:46 pm

Let's just wait and see what happens with the storm..

manofsteele79 · #7 Postby **manofsteele79** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:49 pm

FSU guy.....

You can't draw a straight line between those points, that's not the projected path. The storm will be curving toward the east, not a straight line to the next point. follow the curvature of the projected path and the landfall is west of Destin, much closer to Pensacola (AL/FL line).

PerfectStorm · #8 Postby **PerfectStorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:49 pm

can confirm Local Met Tampa Dan Gerard indicating a possible 'major shift' right in the track forecast of Hurricane Ivan more towards the big bend of florida.

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:50 pm

The question is.. at what latitude will he be when he goes N and NE

PerfectStorm · #10 Postby **PerfectStorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:51 pm

we'll see the models change at the 11 pm update. who knows???

#11 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:00 pm

I respectfully disagree with these posts.
Please read the post concerning
the "Northward" movement for
the explanation of Ivan's movement. I think
the NNW movement has gotten many
Floridians excited which of course is
understandable at the possible
implications. The NHC has had the same general
landfall area (MS/AL/W.FL. Panhandle)
for quite some time now. I just do not
believe he will make landfall any further west
than Pensacola or east than MS. The major
issue right now is how strong will Ivan
be when he makes landfall. Just my opinion
which of course is not written in stone.

HardCard · #12 Postby **HardCard** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:01 pm

I really hate misinformation.

#13 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:02 pm

Josephine96 wrote:The question is.. at what latitude will he be when he goes N and NE

28' maybe.

Beach0612 · #14 Postby **Beach0612** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:12 pm

The local guy on Tampa's ABC channel just stated he thinks there will be a major change in the path - more to the right aka east - not looking at a direct hit for Tampa but just more Tropical Storm force winds and rain (like Frances) "he thinks" - God bless us all and please be prepared up and down the coast - these things are WAY too unpredictable! I know I don't mind stepping over my sandbags everyday right now!

Nimbus · #15 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:17 pm

Given the uncertainty about the future strength of the ridge and the speed of the west coast trough I think the models are wise to put as much of the gulf coast within 50 miles of the track..

Website · #16 Postby **FritzPaul** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:17 pm

Quote:

I just do not
believe he will make landfall any further west
than Pensacola or east than MS.

So you think it will not land between MS and P'cola. :wink:

Check your logic.

Josephine96 · #17 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:18 pm

Let's just wait and see.. Oh... boy

5 PM Ivan heading more Right....

5 PM Ivan heading more Right....

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