I've been reading some things on the board over the past couple of hours that I personally think are wrong. I am here to try and clear the air a little bit... (it may be a uphill battle)
1) the tempory motion NNW does NOT take anybody off the hook. Ivan is simply feeling the influence of the trough over the north Gulf. The trough is lifting out and with ridging building back in...Ivan will continue NW. In fact, it looks as if the NNW motion has already ended.
2) there is still uncertainty on the intensity at landfall. I know there is a lot of talk of shear, but there are indications the shear may not be as strong, especially with a DEEP west coast trough, which would result in ridging over the east. That is not exactly a shear pattern.
Bottom line, the area from the NW FL Panhandle to New Orleans is under a great risk from this storm.
A myth that needs broken...
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ALhurricane
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A myth that needs broken...
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