Anyone think a N turn

[tallbunch]

will happen by the 5:00 advisory?

[Sanibel]

I'll gamble no. Looks like Ivan has tumbled into a void. If he was entering a new steering regime he probably would have picked up forward speed. If the continental pattern refuses to reach down to him he'll tumble right along on 325*...

[tronbunny]

Seeing real NNW movement.
20min N
14min W

URNT12 KNHC 141251
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1251Z
B. 23 DEG 04 MIN N
86 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2484 M
D. 65 KT
E. 050 DEG 71 NM
F. 143 DEG 126 KT
G. 056 DEG 029 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 10 C/ 3072 M
J. 17 C/ 3052 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. C30
M. OPEN SOUTH
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF984 3409A IVAN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 1242Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 245/7NM FROM
FL CNTR. EYE CLOUD FILLED WITH SOME OPEN AREAS.

URNT12 KNHC 141540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1540Z
B. 23 DEG 24 MIN N
86 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2496 M
D. 55 KT
E. 226 DEG 65 NM
F. 319 DEG 102 KT
G. 227 DEG 027 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 13 C/ 3089 M
J. 16 C/ 3079 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 1234/7
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF984 3409A IVAN OB 22
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NW QUAD 1411Z. MAX FL TEMP 20C 228/19NM FROM
FL CNTR. NEW EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

[rbaker]

been looking for this north turn for last 4 days at least. Granted its now nnw, but by now it was suppose to be around 85 w long and its past 86 w long. The models on this storm have been awful.

[LAwxrgal]

The NW turn was 2 days late as well.

[Josephine96]

I would say yes but the way he's been I wouldn't bet on it

[therealashe]

So is the feeling that Ivan won't turn back toward the FL panhandle at all? I keep waiting for a NE or N turn, expecting the worst.

What time or lat/long would be the point of no return for it having a chance to turn back towards Panama City Beach?

[PTrackerLA]

My worries are that Ivan will never make a N turn and continue heading NNW maybe even more NW and slam right into SE LA. Hope things change .

[Ixolib]

My worries are that Ivan will never make a N turn and continue heading NNW maybe even more NW and slam right into SE LA. Hope things change .

Been kinda pondering that possibility myself.........

[HurricaneGirl]

Looks like a beeline to New Orleans

[kevin]

Its coming right for them!

[mascpa]

Patience. Eventually we should get the turn to the north. I also think that he'll negin that slow parabolic turn from NNW to N to NNE shortly before landfall.

[Josephine96]

if it does head to New Orleans,, It better be no more than a Cat 1..

[LAwxrgal]

I hope the turn happens too. But NOLA mayor Ray Nagin is on TV here now and he sounds scared.

[golter]

Panama City Beach will not be spared, its a matter of how close to the eye. I will give this estimate, if Ivan passes west of 27N 88W, I dont see a scenario that brings Ivan within 50 miles of PCB. If Ivan passes east or over 27N 87W, I would get out of Dodge...

[AlabamaDave]

New Orleans SHOULD be scared. It's not going to take much of a track deviation to have this thing at least swipe extreme SE Louisiana and metro New Orleans.

Correct me if I am wrong, though, but I think storm surge will only be a major problem if the center crosses Lake Ponch. or moves to the West of it??? Camille struck land at Pass Christian, which is barely across the LA/MS border -- and New Orleans didn't have severe effects.

[opera ghost]

I'm thinking that Camille was Pre-Levee system... anyone know if I'm nuts or not?