Accuweather 5 PM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 14, 2004 5:19 p.m.


Weaker, But Still Very Dangerous Ivan in the Gulf - Aiming Toward the North Gulf Coast

At 11:00 AM EDT this morning, Ivan was centered at 23.4 north, 86.2 west, or about 435 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are now 140 mph, making it a category 4 hurricane. The central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit aircraft was 932 millibars (27.52 inches). Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest at 8 mph. A hurricane warning remains in effect for western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the northeastern Yucatan. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward, including the Dry Tortugas. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to St. Marks, Florida, including the city of New Orleans.

Ivan will more than likely undergo fluctuations in the next day or so, but it will likely be a major hurricane upon landfall. We project landfall tomorrow night or Thursday morning between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City, Florida, as a strong category 3 or a category 4 hurricane.

Ivan has found the weakness between two highs; the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and high pressure over Texas. Also, an upper-level disturbance has passed through the Tennessee Valley. These are all factors in the north-northwest turn of Ivan. Once that upper-level disturbance lifts out, it may very well allow a turn back to the northwest, then another disturbance will move toward the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, which will try to pick up the hurricane. It remains to be seen how far west Ivan gets, before it is influenced by that second disturbance, or digging trough, but based on all real-time data, and current model data, we believe that area between the mouth of the Mississippi and Panama City is the most likely area for a direct hit from dangerous Hurricane Ivan. We expect landfall tomorrow night, if it is closer to the mouth of the Mississippi; early Thursday, if it is farther east.

Tropical Depression Number 11 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Jeanne. As of 11:00 AM EDT, Jeanne was centered at 16.6 north, 63.1 west, or about 135 miles of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. The estimated central pressure is 1006 millibars (29.71 inches). Jeanne is moving west-northwest at 12 mph. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Kitts, and Nevis. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Anguilla. The knowledge of the increase in strength of this system was based on satellite information; an aircraft is to investigate Tropical Storm Jeanne this afternoon.

[Ixolib]

Lotta IFs in there for an "official" forecast?????

[Cape Verde]

I'd put a lot of "ifs" in any forecast. Let's not make the mistake of Charley where some people falsely assumed that it was a slam dunk Tampa hurricane.

[GalvestonDuck]

Lotta IFs in there for an "official" forecast?????

Accuweather is not official; NHC is.