Charley to become a Cat 4?

[LSU]

This deep convection onshore should have everyone worried. Charley couldn't have picked a better place to come ashore in Cuba. I've checked the buoys located in the water Charley will travel, and the average temperature is 86.2. I think it's a given now that Charley will be a Cat 3. Let's hope he doesn't push the Cat 4 button.

GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN IF YOU LIVE ON FL'S WEST COAST.

[Hyperstorm]

Unfortunately, anything is possible...

Cat.3/4 borderline hurricane could cause catastrophic events for the areas mentioned in my other thread...

[Matthew5]

Looks Possible get out of the track of this storm!

[Hurricane Cheese]

I was wondering when someone would bring up the notion of Charley possibly going to Cat 4.

I remember when Hurrican Lili crossed Cuba in 2002 it went from 105 mph to 140 mph in one days time.

The conditions seem prime for intensification.


Remember, Hurricane Hugo was 135 mph in 1989 when it hit South Carolina....!!!

[MW98GT]

Lets hope not, I am right in the path as of the 11pm.

[tallywx]

Remember, Charleston only got 86 mph, gusts to 116 mph in Hugo (western eyewall)

[rtd2]

at this point....keyword.... charley compared to hugo is a bad comparison..... apples to oranges ....pinto vs. limo!

[tallywx]

Charley is Charley, and at worst, will be one of those names we harken back to...

[Hurricane Cheese]

Remember, the NHC had Hugo with 135 sustained winds when it came ashore with it's final advisory before landfall.

Also, Charleston didn't take a directed hit, as I believe it was the area just north that took the hit, thus Charleston's winds were slightly less.


Charely is not yet a Hugo or Andrew, the two strongest landfalling storms in the last 30 years, but it has the POTENTIAL to be a monster. Just listen to the Tropical Roundtable right now over the internet! They're all very concerned.

Just can't discount him now as he's over the warm gulf. Next 12 hours will tell the story...

Right now I'm leaning towards a Fran or Opal like storm hitting the west coast of FL later today.

[Huckster]

Charley is looking rather impressive on radar. At this point, assuming none of the variables change, I think the best we can hope for is that the hurricane undergoes an eyewall replacement as it makes landfall and that it gets sheared; it does have a very small, tight eye. Otherwise, Charley is probably destined to become the next billion dollar disaster for the US. Intensity seems to often be a difficult aspect to forecast. If I remember correctly, the official forecast for Lili, while it was still over Cuba, only called for it to reach around 105 mph in the Gulf. It ended up at 145 mph. Isbell, Hilda, Camille, Frederic, Elena, Isidore, and Lili were all storms that passed not terribly far from where Charley has (western Cuba), and they all intensified significantly thereafter. So, there is good reason to fear that Charley might become a Cat. 4, especially since it is already nearly a Cat. 3. The 120 mph maximum intensity forecast by TPC may be too conservative. We'll soon see.

[LSU]

I may be over a month late in "gloating" of my prediction of Charley becoming a Cat 4 when he was but a wee little Cat 1, but I am finally here. I've been out of the country.

My prediction for Ivan: Cat 4 (135 mph) at landfall in Biloxi, MS. I still think they're being generous with moving him so far east.

That computer showing Ivan doing a loop once it reaches shore is quite interesting.

[Guest]

What do you say about Jeanne.? I remember reading that thread. Good luck.

[jj_frap]

Jeanne won't be much.

Compared to Ivan (the Terrible) and Karl (Rove), it's a fairly wussy name.