Calculated Landfall

[vortex100]

Ok, folks, for what it is worth, I have used all the information I could find and have come up with the following. It now appears that Ivan is indeed in a strengthening process, with a large eye, which should contract just before landfall. By my projections, the eye will pass just off the southeastern corner of Louisiana by 7 pm CDT this evening and move directly over Pascagoula, MS at about 3 am CDT Thursday. This would likely put the strongest winds over Gulf Shores, Foley and Mobile, AL. However, winds will likely be almost as strong at Biloxi and Ocean Springs, but with less of a storm surge. Wind flow up the bay south of Mobile will likely generate a substantial and very dangerous storm surge into the Mobile metro area. I expect surface winds to be back into 120-125kt sustained range at landfall.

[CaptinCrunch]

On September 8, I said between NO LA and Gulfport MS and no less than a Strong Cat 4 145mph winds.

When NHC and all models and MOST of everyone on this board was FLORIDA set.

[wabbitoid]

Captin, I remembered that because I thought it was a possibility that was being overlooked. People focused on Florida far too much, and just ignored the possibility of a big storm following Camille.

[Psychonaut777]

I'm going to agree.
I've been saying a mississippi/luisiana border landfall with strong 4+ for 2 days now. I don't know what crack these weather people are smoking. That thing is aimed like a bullet and getting stronger by the hour.

[Josephine96]

Give us all credit lmao.. we all had an opinion

[CaptinCrunch]

"People focused on Florida far too much"

I like everyone on this board, but the statement above is so true. I'm just suprised on how close I have been with this Hurricane, the Tropics and forecasting is still new to me.

P.S. Josephine96, you did a good jod on your first forecast for Jeanne