Jeannes and Hispanolia

[Vortex]

chances are excellent based on history that Jeanne will weaken to at least a TD if it crosses the length of the island. However, i would point out that had Jeanne not moved inland over the island she likely was ready to undergo rapid intensification....If she survives she will likely impact either florida or the Keys sunday/Monday.

[boca]

Where did you get youur Info, they only have one model going towards Miami.

[Steve H.]

Actually Vort, looks like Jeanne is back on a WNW course, which should keep her riding the northern spine of the island. At least that's what latest vis images show.

[RichG]

there was a storm a few years ago that rode the northern coast and it was pretty much killed. It was still being hyped by local media until it was declared a wave.

[bahamaswx]

As I said, I wouldn't have been surprised should she do a Debby.

[Vortex]

looks like it may not traverse the spine of the island but ride the north coast which would make a huge difference as far as jeanne and her intensity as she approaches the central/western bahamas...More later but definetely a florida/keys threat given the evolving synoptic set-up on days 3-5.

[miamijaaz]

there was a storm a few years ago that rode the northern coast and it was pretty much killed. It was still being hyped by local media until it was declared a wave.

It was called Debbie. And as I recall, it came over Hispanola from the south and throught the center to west side of the island, where the highest peaks are at.

[Weatherboy1]

there was a storm a few years ago that rode the northern coast and it was pretty much killed. It was still being hyped by local media until it was declared a wave.

You're thinking about Debby in 2000. But there was a key difference between Debby and Jeanne. They are both in roughly the same place, and it's true that Debby was fatally wounded by the island of Hispaniola. But Debby had another problem -- extremely fast movement and non-aligned rates of movement (I think this is called vertical shear). In other words, she was racing along at something like 20-25 mph, and the different layers of her circulation were moving at different speeds. The low-leve, circ. was outrunning the mid-level circ. So when she got to Hispaniola, she was already not well organized. If Jeanne stays along the N coast of the island and/or just offshore, she could survive (Though weaker) because she is better organized than Debby.

Hope this helps!

[seahawkjd]

Where is the keys florida info coming from? Every model I've seen with the exception of one brings it up the East Coast or out to sea? Is this data you're using or just a resignation that any storm this year within 300 miles of Florida seems to make a bee-line?