NHC did a GREAT job with Ivan 3 days out.

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 12:54 am

I would like to commend the NHC as Ivan is making landfall on Mobile, AL.
They had Mobile, AL as the landfall spot 3 days out.

#2 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:25 am

Stormcenter wrote:I would like to commend the NHC as Ivan is making landfall on Mobile, AL.
They had Mobile, AL as the landfall spot 3 days out.

Deserves a bump.

rbaker · #3 Postby **rbaker** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:27 am

3 days out great, 5 days terrible. Not once but twice

dennis1x1 · #4 Postby **dennis1x1** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:28 am

agreed......hopefully this helps quell SOME of the conspiracy and paranoia theories concerning the NHC......

the NHC is not the enemy!!

:lol:

Tri-State_1925 · #5 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:30 am

Good to see that they nailed one.

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:31 am

I commend the NHC on every storm

Foladar · #7 Postby **Foladar** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:53 am

Jeanne's 3 day looks nasty for Florida, then..and I'm starting to slowly believe it more and more as days go by..

dennis1x1 · #8 Postby **dennis1x1** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:56 am

but the 3 day is well away from the florida coast.

Foladar · #9 Postby **Foladar** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:57 am

dennis1x1 wrote:but the 3 day is well away from the florida coast.

Not well enough away. And the 3day aims it towards us.

golter · #10 Postby **golter** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:58 am

chadtm80 wrote:I commend the NHC on every storm

Ditto,
They always do a great job, they are forecasting weather for crying out loud. Weather is very unpredictable. If NHC would have been in Galveston in 1900. They would have saved thousands of lives. And with each storm that hits US, they save lives.

#11 Postby **Downdraft** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:05 am

Don't pick on the NHC for 5 day forecasts. They readily admit the error factor is large and to be truthful 5 day forecasts are worthless. Sometimes I think the true game for many in here is "beat the NHC" bottom line is over and over and over they do a great job and you can bash em all you want but you can't find anyone that does it better. My hat is off to them I think they're GREAT!

donsutherland1 · #12 Postby **donsutherland1** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:14 am

I strongly agree with the great job the NHC did. As I have stated on past occasions, in my view, the NHC is truly outstanding.

iluvseashore · #13 Postby **iluvseashore** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:14 am

So why are the 5 days so unpredictable? What can be done to improve it?I agree they have done a great job 3 days out. Thats usually when I start paying more attention. They must be pretty stressed by now and here we go again another cane and TD in the birth canal.

guanaskip · #14 Postby **guanaskip** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:22 am

3 day sure seems good. why not do away with 5 day. it's about as accurate as 10 day, but government EOC officials seem to have latched on to it (5 day) as gold standard for evacuations.

trwxxa7 · #15 Postby **trwxxa7** » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:27 am

guanaskip wrote:3 day sure seems good. why not do away with 5 day. it's about as accurate as 10 day, but government EOC officials seem to have latched on to it (5 day) as gold standard for evacuations.

I think it's a lot like the 7 day forecasts you sometimes see on local weather forecasts. They have the exact hi and low for that day but it's almost never accurate that far out. Its main purpose is to show the trend for the time period...much like the NHC forecasts. Sure, at 5 days out the accuracy is less, but people that or in or near that part of the cone should pay attention to the trend...

NHC did a GREAT job with Ivan 3 days out.

NHC did a GREAT job with Ivan 3 days out.

Re: NHC did a GREAT job with Ivan 3 days out.

Re: NHC did a GREAT job with Ivan 3 days out.

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