MWATKINS HELP!!
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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Skywatch_NC
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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Skywatch_NC
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Yep...I am still fighting this thing...I am actually looking for damage reports...wait...let me start a thread about that and sticky it...I'll be right back.
Ok..I'm back.
I wish I could make this call with confidence...but right now I cant...The GFS and NOGAPS at 12Z haven't changed their Ivan solution appreciably. The GFDL...run against the same background still takes Jeanne very close to Florida but just off the coast.
The Euro wants to maintain some ridging between Ivan and Jeanne...and Jeanne has been moving left of the guidance again (what a surprise this season huh).
Assuming that Jeanne survives the trip over Hispanola...and I think it will do so...and provided that it does not get subsequently tangled up in the high terrain of eastern Cuba...we are looking at a serious threat to the Bahamas and Florida...and a potential threat to east coast residents in points north.
There is a chance that Ivan could open the window and let Jeanne come north...but we have to ask the question we have been asking the last 3 storms. The models...in paticular the GFS...have been early with the north turn and too fast to weaken the ridge. Are there any reasons in the pattern...based on everything that we know...to believe that this scenario will be different? Unless the Euro starts weakening the ridge it wants to build between the two systems...and in the absence of any other signs...my answer to that question is no.
And...Ivan is leaving behind some decent upper winds...and given that Jeanne is a small system that can intensify rapidly...well...let's not too far ahead yet.
Oh...and TD12 at 5PM.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0409161723
MW
Ok..I'm back.
I wish I could make this call with confidence...but right now I cant...The GFS and NOGAPS at 12Z haven't changed their Ivan solution appreciably. The GFDL...run against the same background still takes Jeanne very close to Florida but just off the coast.
The Euro wants to maintain some ridging between Ivan and Jeanne...and Jeanne has been moving left of the guidance again (what a surprise this season huh).
Assuming that Jeanne survives the trip over Hispanola...and I think it will do so...and provided that it does not get subsequently tangled up in the high terrain of eastern Cuba...we are looking at a serious threat to the Bahamas and Florida...and a potential threat to east coast residents in points north.
There is a chance that Ivan could open the window and let Jeanne come north...but we have to ask the question we have been asking the last 3 storms. The models...in paticular the GFS...have been early with the north turn and too fast to weaken the ridge. Are there any reasons in the pattern...based on everything that we know...to believe that this scenario will be different? Unless the Euro starts weakening the ridge it wants to build between the two systems...and in the absence of any other signs...my answer to that question is no.
And...Ivan is leaving behind some decent upper winds...and given that Jeanne is a small system that can intensify rapidly...well...let's not too far ahead yet.
Oh...and TD12 at 5PM.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0409161723
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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MWatkins wrote:Yep...I am still fighting this thing...I am actually looking for damage reports...wait...let me start a thread about that and sticky it...I'll be right back.
Ok..I'm back.
I wish I could make this call with confidence...but right now I cant...The GFS and NOGAPS at 12Z haven't changed their Ivan solution appreciably. The GFDL...run against the same background still takes Jeanne very close to Florida but just off the coast.
The Euro wants to maintain some ridging between Ivan and Jeanne...and Jeanne has been moving left of the guidance again (what a surprise this season huh).
Assuming that Jeanne survives the trip over Hispanola...and I think it will do so...and provided that it does not get subsequently tangled up in the high terrain of eastern Cuba...we are looking at a serious threat to the Bahamas and Florida...and a potential threat to east coast residents in points north.
There is a chance that Ivan could open the window and let Jeanne come north...but we have to ask the question we have been asking the last 3 storms. The models...in paticular the GFS...have been early with the north turn and too fast to weaken the ridge. Are there any reasons in the pattern...based on everything that we know...to believe that this scenario will be different? Unless the Euro starts weakening the ridge it wants to build between the two systems...and in the absence of any other signs...my answer to that question is no.
And...Ivan is leaving behind some decent upper winds...and given that Jeanne is a small system that can intensify rapidly...well...let's not too far ahead yet.
Oh...and TD12 at 5PM.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0409161723
MW
Thank you so much! Hope you are getting better!
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