new jeanne forecast... much less intense

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:46 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

#2 Postby **JtSmarts** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:51 am

Good news for the hurricane weary in US, bad news for DR.

SouthernWx · #3 Postby **SouthernWx** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:05 am

Between visible satellite imagery and surface observations from Puerto Plata, D.R., it appears the center of Jeanne is near the north coast of Hispanola...near 20 n/ 71 w.

At Puerto Plata....winds were sustained SE-40 kts at 9 a.m.
Pressure at 9 a.m. was 1014 mb....but only an hour earlier the pressure was 1001 mb (29.56") with east winds sustained at 40 kts. The pressure at Puerto Plata fell from 1014 to 1001 mb in two hours....and rose 13 mb an hour later -- which tells me Jeanne's pressure center is extremely small...and very vunerable to shear.

If Jeanne's center doesn't get out over open water in a hurry....she'll suffer the same demise as hurricane Debby in 2000.

tallbunch · #4 Postby **tallbunch** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:12 am

do you have graphics?

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:43 am

graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

wxwatcher2 · #6 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:46 am

Hispaniola,,,,,,is a storm killer Island.

This will still be a significant storm for Florida.
Perhaps not strong winds but certainly torrential rains which at this point in time are very bad for many low lying areas.

I don't see how Jeanne can gain anything more than cat 1 strength in the next few days.

cape_escape · #7 Postby **cape_escape** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:54 am

Isn't that about the same track that Frances took?

new jeanne forecast... much less intense

new jeanne forecast... much less intense

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