"Convection appears to be redeveloping in NE quad"

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MGC
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"Convection appears to be redeveloping in NE quad"

#1 Postby MGC » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:01 pm

From latest vortex. Pressure has dropped 1mb. TS by 11pm?....MGC
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Re: "Convection appears to be redeveloping in NE quad&q

#2 Postby TS Zack » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:02 pm

Oh Great!
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#3 Postby Deenac813 » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:03 pm

Give me a break! You have got to be kidding me... :grr:
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#4 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:09 pm

given NHCs 5PM discussion (if you could even call it that) which basically says we really don't know, IF (and that still is a BIG IF) Jeanne refires then all bets off for track/intensity. As someone said earlier, she just may be the most difficult of the season to forecast. By the way anyone else catch the "Karl Marks" reference in the 5PM Karl discussion
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#5 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:18 pm

That was true NHC humor! A one for the records.. I printed it out..
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#6 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:22 pm

new IR loop still shows convection in the NE quad (even appears to be deepening at least in that quad)
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#7 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:56 pm

hate to sound like a broken record but once again as of 645 EST IR loop convection firing in NE quad
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#8 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 17, 2004 6:41 pm

jpigott wrote:hate to sound like a broken record but once again as of 645 EST IR loop convection firing in NE quad



convection firing yes but the shear is not allowing to wrap to the north and west....until that shear relaxes maybe it will re-develope...
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#9 Postby Aquawind » Fri Sep 17, 2004 6:47 pm

ROCK wrote:
jpigott wrote:hate to sound like a broken record but once again as of 645 EST IR loop convection firing in NE quad



convection firing yes but the shear is not allowing to wrap to the north and west....until that shear relaxes maybe it will re-develope...


Yep..that shear is a good thing and should slow if not prevent the reorganization..well hopefully. :)
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#10 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:04 pm

yep, shear is keeping the convection of the west side of the LLC. However, in the past few hours we have gone from no convection around the LLC to having most of the eastern side of the LLC under convection
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#11 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:07 pm

Upper level wind shear is low north of Hispaniola. It is currently between 10 and 40 or so knots over the Bahamas and again quite low across central and south Florida.

There is no shear over Jeanne now. -----> Shear Tendency
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#12 Postby Aquawind » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:20 pm

I hear ya Tom.. However looking at the WV..it is real dry ahead and no convection to the west..looks sheared still.. Maybe that is GFS based..lol..don't get me wrong I check those maps all the time..but come on that looks like it's silent overhead..highly doubtfully. :)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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