Is "New" Jeanne forming by the Turks and Cacos?

logybogy · #1 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:36 pm

Lots of new convection north and east of the Dominican Republic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:38 pm

RECON data reported that the old center moved westward and dissipated while a new center reformed well NE of the original one, closer to the convection and yes, still Jeanne is a 45 MPH tropical storm ...

SF

greg lampkin · #3 Postby **greg lampkin** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:40 pm

So do the projections still apply to this newly formed center? Or will it move in an entirely new direction? I'm still confused!!

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:40 pm

As the new center takes over, the previous old center jutted out west and it now anticyclonically moving back east ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#5 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:42 pm

Please stop the maddness, I can't take this any more :eek:

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:42 pm

greg lampkin wrote:So do the projections still apply to this newly formed center? Or will it move in an entirely new direction? I'm still confused!!

The previous thinking remains the same ... the only difference is that the track location was shifted northeast to reflect the new center, otherwise, the track forecast remains the same ...

SF

logybogy · #7 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:44 pm

What about intensity?

Now that the new center is over open water and away from the dominican republic will it intensify rapidly?

#8 Postby **Cookiely** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:44 pm

Saturday 09/18 Forecast in Detail for TURKS ISLAND
Day
Very windy with heavy t-storms Night
Cloudy, t-storms; very windy
High 30° C Low 23° C
Maximum RealFeel 36° C Minimum RealFeel 24° C
RealFeel Shade 34° C RealFeel Shade
Winds S at 43 km/h Winds N/A
Wind Gusts 105 km/h Wind Gusts 84 km/h
Maximum UV 4 Maximum UV
Thunderstorm Probability 99% Thunderstorm Probability 93%
Amount of Precipitation 49.5 mm Amount of Precipitation 11.2 mm
Amount of Rain 49.5 mm Amount of Rain 11.2 mm
Amount of Snow 0.0 mm Amount of Snow 0.0 mm
Hours of Precipitation 11 Hours of Precipitation 10
JEANNE must have been affecting them already with 65mph gusts. That still doesn't seem right to me based on her poor condition.

Sanibel · #9 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:58 pm

We haven't seen a re-former in a while!

The old center has definitely kicked out as a spent remnant and become a null vortex feature in the cyclonic circulation. Somewhere under the convection to its NE is a new center forming (I 'll take their word on it) Interesting that the deep red-signature cloud-tops have positioned up near the surface center instead of down away to the SE. This tells us something that is too much detail to guess.

If Jeanne has 'jumped' north that probably means a ridge isn't pressing on top. I won't speculate on a long-term track. TWC thinks she'll intensify under favorable conditions. Could be a weird tracker if a High builds...

#10 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:11 pm

Say it ain't so!

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:11 pm

That ULL that was forecasted to move south and dissipate, in fact, amplified and moved RIGHT OVER JEANNE ... and has caused this very strange turn of events with Jeanne ... convection is still regenerating on the eastern semicircle of the "new" center, however, it's still NOT in a prime environmental conditions (albeit, a little better than before) ...

SF

#12 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:16 pm

Boy, just when you think you have a good handle on what the storm is/going to do, poff, she does just the opposate :eek:

. We shall wait and see. This could be a long drawn out storm :eek:

that will drive every one(well, some not all :lol:

) nuts over the next several days.

rbaker · #13 Postby **rbaker** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:29 pm

still very disorganized as compared to other tropical storms. I don't think the tpc has any clue to where jeanne is going in 72 hrs let alone in 5 days.

#14 Postby **Windy** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:35 pm

Man, this is a crazy storm! First it impales itself on the mountains of Hispanola... for two days. Then it pulls itself out of there for a couple of days and builds a bit more strength. Now it's barfed up it's center of circulation and formed a new one. WHAT'S GOIN' ON OUT THERE?! :wink:

clueless newbie · #15 Postby **clueless newbie** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:49 pm

Windy wrote:Man, this is a crazy storm! First it impales itself on the mountains of Hispanola... for two days. Then it pulls itself out of there for a couple of days and builds a bit more strength. Now it's barfed up it's center of circulation and formed a new one. WHAT'S GOIN' ON OUT THERE?!

You forgot the dance in PR and a stationary mutant feeder band drenching Virgin inlands.

Is "New" Jeanne forming by the Turks and Cacos?

Is "New" Jeanne forming by the Turks and Cacos?

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