Storm2K Ensemble Forecast #3 - 10:30PM

[MWatkins]

I am going to start verifying these tracks tomorrow sometime...all of this is sitting in a database here at home so I can start letting folks know what their error rate is...cool huh? Also...will have an error rate for the concensus forecast as well.

The really cool thing is if we keep at it...I can do some modeling around the numbers to weight forecasts that are verifying better and make this a true ensemble:

Members (4)

MW
SouthernWX
CSWITWER
HurricaneHink

Initial: 22.2N 72.3W 40 knots
+12: 23.3N 72.7W 39 knots
+24: 24.3N 72.7W 39 knots
+36: 25.6N 72.4W 40 knots
+48: 26.9N 72.1W 41 knots
+72: 27.0N 70.7W 50 knots
+96: 26.7N 71.9W 53 knots
+120: 26.7N 74.2W 55 knots

MW

[MWatkins]

Revised to include Coldfront in the group...thanks Tom!

Ensemble Members (5)

MW
SouthernWx
Hurricanehink
cswitwer
ColdFront

0 22.2N 72.3W 40 knots
+12 23.3N 72.6W 40 knots
+24 24.3N 72.6W 41 knots
+36 25.5N 72.4W 43 knots
+48 26.7N 72.1W 45 knots
+72 27.0N 71.6W 53 knots
+96 26.6N 72.8W 58 knots
+120 26.7N 74.5W 60 knots

MW

[rjgator]

I respect all of you guys but that brings it close to us Mike and that is the last thing I need. Knowing my luck this year your forecast will most likely be dead on and she will be knocking on our door next week. Anyway good luck and I like the ensemble idea and again respect and appreciate all you guys time and effort you put in to this.