EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE KARL
NJN WEATHER CENTER
230PM SUN SEPT 19TH 2004
Hurricane Karl is continuing to grow in size way out in the open Atlantic and is nearing Cat 4 status as of the 11am advisory.
Karl is becoming a classic hurricane in a hurry and the 5th major storm of the season. Karl though will remain just a threat to mariners.
The forecast for Karl has him moving west a little bit longer, then moving north and being kicked back further into the far open Atlantic. The colder waters should call for Karl to weaken.
Karl may not weaken till the 3rd or 4th day of the period.. So I would not rule out the possibility of Karl becoming a monster storm. If he does become a Cat 4.. he will become the 4th Category 4 in the past month {Ivan, Charley, Frances and Karl}
Forecast for Karl will have it continuing to strengthen till the 4th or 5th day of the period.. then this fish monster will slowly begin to weaken.
Note: Track and intensity forecasts can have errors. Some as big as several 100 miles.
Rest of Today: Continuing to grow. Max Winds: 135 mph
Monday: Slow north or NW jog underway. Maybe even more strengthening. Max Winds: 145 mph
Tuesday: Continuing to head out to sea. Still moving North. Max Winds: 150 mph
Wednesday: Starting to weaken. Accelerating North. Max Winds: 125 mph
Thursday: Still weakening. Waters may be getting chilly now. Max Winds: 105 mph
I have backed off on Karl making it to Cat 5.. but it's not impossible
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making decisions, especially life or death decisions. For more details, please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.
Karl forecast #4.. Here fishy fishy
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