11 PM KARL -- 135 MPH, WNW 11, 944 MB

[yoda]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

FISHIE!!!


Hurricane Karl Advisory Number 14


Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 19, 2004


...Cat 4 Karl continues moving west-northwest...
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Karl was located near
latitude 17.2 north... longitude 45.1 west or about 1080
miles...1740 km... east of the Lesser Antilles.

Karl is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours.
After about 24 hours...Karl is expected to turn gradually toward
the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb...27.88 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...17.2 N... 45.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 944 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Jarvinen

[yoda]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2004



Karl seems to have leveled off for now. Intensity estimates from
TAFB/SAB/KGWC are 115/102/102 knots respectively. The appearance of
the system over all is excellent and the initial intensity will
remain at 115 knots.

The motion estimate is basically unchanged...290/10. Water vapor
images show a deep-layered ridge to the north of Karl which is
expected to remain for about the next 24 hours. Afterward... a
middle to upper level trough currently along 57w is forecast to
erode the ridge and pull the hurricane northward on a rather sharp
recurvature near 50w. Model guidance is tightly clustered and
the official forecast is in good agreement with the global
consensus.

Karl is on the southwest flank of an upper anticyclone with little
shear. The GFS model suggests that the hurricane has about 48
hours to strengthen before vertical wind shear increases. The
intensity forecast follows the SHIPS model which has performed well
for the cyclone. It is Worth mentioning that Karl will be moving
over slightly warmer water near its recurvature point where the
maximum intensity is often reached.

Forecaster Jarvinen

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0300z 17.2n 45.1w 115 kt
12hr VT 20/1200z 17.9n 46.5w 120 kt
24hr VT 21/0000z 19.2n 48.2w 125 kt
36hr VT 21/1200z 20.7n 49.5w 130 kt
48hr VT 22/0000z 22.8n 50.3w 130 kt
72hr VT 23/0000z 28.9n 49.4w 115 kt
96hr VT 24/0000z 35.5n 46.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 25/0000z 46.0n 42.0w 80 kt


130 kts = 150 mph... could Karl be a Cat 5?