TD 13 18Z GFDL= Threat to the Lesser Antilles!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This afernoon the GFDL was forecasting a northwestward to northward movement in the next couple of days, but tonight they move TD 13 to the west and even makes a turn to the wsw. The NOGAPS is another model that keep the storm moving westward as a week tropical storm.

Also at 5pm the center of the system ws located near 13.3N 33.2W. At 8pm it moved to the south to 13.1N33.5W So we have to monitor this system to see if it will be moving to the north with Karl, or will mantain a depression or weak tropical storm status and move south of Karl and threaten the islands during the end of the week.

Any thoughts>?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Kennethb]

While anything is possible, I wonder how any model can digest and correctly predict with three tropical systems that are interacting with each other.

[Foladar]

What is that other system over the Bahamas??

[Bane]

Jeanne

[Foladar]

that would put it near FLA then if this follows thru

[MWatkins]

It is possible...Karl and Jeanne will probably double-team the ridge pretty good but it is possible for Lisa to sneak under the weakness if it stays as far south as the GFDL indiates. Have to watch this though..but it's possible.

Miles should have left a little wiggle room when he wrote 5PM discussion instead of leaping on the GFDL solution...cause now he's toasted.

MW

[TerryAlly]

This afernoon the GFDL was forecasting a northwestward to northward movement in the next couple of days, but tonight they move TD 13 to the west and even makes a turn to the wsw. The NOGAPS is another model that keep the storm moving westward as a week tropical storm.

Also at 5pm the center of the system ws located near 13.3N 33.2W. At 8pm it moved to the south to 13.1N33.5W So we have to monitor this system to see if it will be moving to the north with Karl, or will mantain a depression or weak tropical storm status and move south of Karl and threaten the islands during the end of the week.

Any thoughts?

It's too early to read anything into this wobble. Karl is leaving a big open path and is already impacting the development of TD 13 ... let's wait until the next run of the other global models to see what the "thinking" is on it.

Some of the models are even developing a TD 14 in another 3-4 days behind TD 13.

[panichead4469]

that would put it near FLA then if this follows thru

you've got to be kidding me! Talk about -removed-! LOL, I hate to bust on people, but thats the most overblown tropical weather assumption I've ever heard. If this thing even survives, we'll all have to keep a strong eye on....a possible Lisa. For some reason storms this year don't like being fishes, at least, don't enjoy going fishing!! So,...in other words, lets wait to see what happens, not just automatically assume ,..ohh, looks like another FLA cane coming off the coast of africa today!

[Stormsfury]

Not putting a lot of stock in the GFDL since it's based on the grids of the GFS, and frankly, I think the GFS is handling Jeanne as badly as watching a flock of seagulls flying directly overhead and circling where you stand ...

SF

[ajaxw]

It is possible...Karl and Jeanne will probably double-team the ridge pretty good but it is possible for Lisa to sneak under the weakness if it stays as far south as the GFDL indiates. Have to watch this though..but it's possible.

Miles should have left a little wiggle room when he wrote 5PM discussion instead of leaping on the GFDL solution...cause now he's toasted.

MW

Indeed, as the 11 PM package contained a significant leftward shift.