Monday September 20, 2004 5pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
"I am currently in the thinking that, once she begins strengthening with that small center, she could go rather quick, even if the conditions are only right for 6-12 hours." I SAID THAT 48 hours ago.... I was right.
Jeanne has intensifyed quite rapidly to a strong category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph and a 983 mb pressure.
Jeanne is moving NE at 6 mph. I expect the trough to miss it, and the ridge of high pressure to build in, steering Jeanne back to the southwest and then west. I eventually expect another trough to come help give Jeanne some latitude, but I expect it may impact the East Coast of the United States.
As for intensity, I expect Jeanne to continue to intensify for the next 36 hours. If Jeanne goes a little quicker than we think, there is a chance Jeanne could become a major hurricane. After 72 hours, I expect some shear to weaken Jeanne and then hold her in check.
12 HRS-- 27.6 N--- 69.9 W-- 85 kt
24 HRS-- 27.4 N-- 68.9 W-- 90 kt
36 HRS-- 26.2 N-- 69.0 W-- 95 kt
48 HRS-- 25.4 N-- 70.0 W-- 95 kt
72 HRS-- 25.0 N-- 71.3 W-- 90 kt
96 HRS-- 25.2 N-- 72.3 W-- 80 kt
120 HRS- 25.4 N-- 73.1 W-- 80 kt
