Hold up... 12z NOGAPS and CMC would like Jeanne to visit FL

Foladar · #21 Postby **Foladar** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:43 pm

hey MW, you think we have anything to worry about a direct hit or hurricane force winds in S FLA? (like Homestead south)

Steve H. · #22 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:56 pm

GFDL now has shifted west, bringing her to 29N/79W, then DUE north. :roll:

Foladar · #23 Postby **Foladar** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:58 pm

where is 29N and 79W?

gkrangers · #24 Postby **gkrangers** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:00 pm

Foladar wrote:where is 29N and 79W?

100 miles east of JAX.

Since the models have underestimated the ridging at times...a threat to FL has to be taken seriously.

#25 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:00 pm

Still over water, east of the Jacksonville area, south of Wilmington, Foladar....

#26 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:01 pm

Steve H. wrote:GFDL now has shifted west, bringing her to 29N/79W, then DUE north.

Hey NO WAY... that is too close to me. And I have my "hurricane go away man" working his thing!!!

GO AWAY GO AWAY.......

Foladar · #27 Postby **Foladar** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:03 pm

Ah ok, so S. Fla should be ok with a direct hit? how large is this 'cane compared to Frances size?

#28 Postby **Deenac813** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:06 pm

[/quote]

Yes...but with a sharp turn in front of Central Florida.

Run after run is further west than the last. The GFS is just off the coast of FL and was the eastern-most model at 00Z. If UKMET and GFDL shift westward...and I think they will...there will be some significant leftward adjustments to the forecast track at 5PM.

MW[/quote]

uhh Mike...shhhhhhhh dont even think it :wink:

Weatherboy1 · #29 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:09 pm

GFDL now has shifted west, bringing her to 29N/79W, then DUE north.

Yes, now the GFDL has joined the chorus of models shifting further west. The NOGAPS, if I'm looking at it correctly, actually has this thing crossing most of the state of FL on its curve to the NW and N (after plowing inland around Melbourne). There isn't a consensus bringing this thing ashore in FL yet, but the trend is definitely more westerly. And with ALL the models underestimating the SW Atlantic/Bermuda ridge on several storms this year, I would definitely pay attention along the east coast.

What's becoming almost a certainty is that SOMEWHERE on the SE coast will be affected by Jeanne. I just don't see her going fishing anymore.

Weatherboy1 · #30 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:25 pm

I haven't seen the new plots on the SFWMD plot map yet, but I checked the FSU FTP site, and they have Jeanne further S and W over time too. Not all the way into FL, mind you, but a shift of what looks like about 100 miles further W.

#31 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:29 pm

Ya'll relax...models are changing all the time, you know that!! :wink:

#32 Postby **mascpa** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:50 pm

For the most part (and I'm generalizing) the models have been trending further south and west. Enough so that evryone on the east coast from FL to NC/VA must continue to monitor the progress of Jeanne. And I just got out of our Frances "post mortem" meeting to assess our preparation and response to Frances. Will it ever end?

hurricane1020 · #33 Postby **hurricane1020** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 2:04 pm

didnt the ukmet have it going through fla earlier but they said they were not going with that model

Hold up... 12z NOGAPS and CMC would like Jeanne to visit FL

about 100 miles further west, if I had to guess

UKMET further S and W

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