Approaching Cape Fear, NC Monday Afternoon with 85 mph winds, moving NE(due east of Jacksonville, FL Sunday)
Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 37
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2004
...Jeanne moving southwestward and expected to turn westward...
interests in and near the northwest and central Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of Jeanne.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 26.1 north...longitude 69.0 west or about 500
miles... 810 km...east of great abaco island.
Jeanne is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph... 7 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward west is expected later tonight or Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft was 967 mb...28.56 inches.
Dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by large swells generated
by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible along the southeastern U.S.
Coast and the northwest and central Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...26.1 N... 69.0 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 967 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
5pm Jeanne-100 mph winds, 967 mb pressure
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Brent
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Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 37
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2004
this afetrnoon...a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft investigating
Jeanne reported a central pressure of 967 mb...but an 850 mb flight
-level wind of only 95 kt...equal to about a 76-kt surface wind...
where a sfmr surface wind of 78 kt was reported in the same western
quadrant. However...the advisory intensity will remain at 85 kt
given that stronger winds could be located north of the center. The
central pressure would also typically support about 104 kt surface
winds. Dvorak intensity estimates of t5.0...or 90 kt...from TAFB
and SAB also support keeping the intensity higher.
The initial motion is now 240/4. A significant change has been made
to the previous forecast track...mainly after 72 hours. All of the
NHC model guidance has made a major westward shift. This is due to
the large High/Ridge over the northeastern U.S. And mid-Atlantic
states forecast to move more slowly to the southeast than
previously indicated. In fact...some of the models like NOGAPS and
the GFDN actually elongate the ridge more east-west than moving it
eastward. The result is that Jeanne is expected to take a more
westward track through 72-96 hours...before it recurves to the
northeast of the southeastern U.S. Coast. Only the NOGAPS model
moves Jeanne inland over east-central Florida...similar to the
track of Frances. While the NOGAPS solution is a possibility...the
NHC model consensus is in good agreement on Jeanne remaining
offshore the U.S. Coast throughout the forecast period.
Unfortunately...the more westerly forecast track brings the
hurricane very close to the northern Bahamas in 60-72 hours.
While the vertical shear is forecast to only be around 10 kt for the
next 48 hours...the presence of dry mid-level air surrounding the
cyclone may prevent significant strengthening from occurring. By 72
hours...though...the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5
kt and the outflow pattern is expected to improve...so there could
be some significant intensification occur at that time. The
official forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours...
and then slightly higher than ships due to Jeanne possibly moving
directly over the warm gulfstream similar to what Alex did earlier
this year. However...if Jeanne moves a little farther west...then
it would be over much cooler shelf water of 76-79f...and that would
likely result in a much weaker cyclone.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/2100z 26.1n 69.0w 85 kt
12hr VT 23/0600z 25.9n 69.7w 85 kt
24hr VT 23/1800z 25.9n 70.8w 90 kt
36hr VT 24/0600z 26.1n 72.2w 90 kt
48hr VT 24/1800z 26.5n 74.1w 95 kt
72hr VT 25/1800z 28.0n 78.0w 95 kt
96hr VT 26/1800z 30.5n 79.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 27/1800z 33.5n 78.0w 75 kt
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2004
this afetrnoon...a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft investigating
Jeanne reported a central pressure of 967 mb...but an 850 mb flight
-level wind of only 95 kt...equal to about a 76-kt surface wind...
where a sfmr surface wind of 78 kt was reported in the same western
quadrant. However...the advisory intensity will remain at 85 kt
given that stronger winds could be located north of the center. The
central pressure would also typically support about 104 kt surface
winds. Dvorak intensity estimates of t5.0...or 90 kt...from TAFB
and SAB also support keeping the intensity higher.
The initial motion is now 240/4. A significant change has been made
to the previous forecast track...mainly after 72 hours. All of the
NHC model guidance has made a major westward shift. This is due to
the large High/Ridge over the northeastern U.S. And mid-Atlantic
states forecast to move more slowly to the southeast than
previously indicated. In fact...some of the models like NOGAPS and
the GFDN actually elongate the ridge more east-west than moving it
eastward. The result is that Jeanne is expected to take a more
westward track through 72-96 hours...before it recurves to the
northeast of the southeastern U.S. Coast. Only the NOGAPS model
moves Jeanne inland over east-central Florida...similar to the
track of Frances. While the NOGAPS solution is a possibility...the
NHC model consensus is in good agreement on Jeanne remaining
offshore the U.S. Coast throughout the forecast period.
Unfortunately...the more westerly forecast track brings the
hurricane very close to the northern Bahamas in 60-72 hours.
While the vertical shear is forecast to only be around 10 kt for the
next 48 hours...the presence of dry mid-level air surrounding the
cyclone may prevent significant strengthening from occurring. By 72
hours...though...the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5
kt and the outflow pattern is expected to improve...so there could
be some significant intensification occur at that time. The
official forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours...
and then slightly higher than ships due to Jeanne possibly moving
directly over the warm gulfstream similar to what Alex did earlier
this year. However...if Jeanne moves a little farther west...then
it would be over much cooler shelf water of 76-79f...and that would
likely result in a much weaker cyclone.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/2100z 26.1n 69.0w 85 kt
12hr VT 23/0600z 25.9n 69.7w 85 kt
24hr VT 23/1800z 25.9n 70.8w 90 kt
36hr VT 24/0600z 26.1n 72.2w 90 kt
48hr VT 24/1800z 26.5n 74.1w 95 kt
72hr VT 25/1800z 28.0n 78.0w 95 kt
96hr VT 26/1800z 30.5n 79.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 27/1800z 33.5n 78.0w 75 kt
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#neversummer
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
"By 72
hours...though...the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5
kt and the outflow pattern is expected to improve...so there could
be some significant intensification occur at that time. The
official forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours...
and then slightly higher than ships due to Jeanne possibly moving
directly over the warm gulfstream similar to what Alex did earlier
this year. However...if Jeanne moves a little farther west...then
it would be over much cooler shelf water of 76-79f...and that would
likely result in a much weaker cyclone."
I don't like that at all!
hours...though...the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5
kt and the outflow pattern is expected to improve...so there could
be some significant intensification occur at that time. The
official forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours...
and then slightly higher than ships due to Jeanne possibly moving
directly over the warm gulfstream similar to what Alex did earlier
this year. However...if Jeanne moves a little farther west...then
it would be over much cooler shelf water of 76-79f...and that would
likely result in a much weaker cyclone."
I don't like that at all!
0 likes
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38266
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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INITIAL 22/2100Z 26.1N 69.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.9N 69.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 25.9N 70.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.1N 72.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.5N 74.1W 95 KT(110 mph)
72HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 78.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.9N 69.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 25.9N 70.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.1N 72.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.5N 74.1W 95 KT(110 mph)
72HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 78.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W 75 KT
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#neversummer
-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Brent wrote:While the vertical shear is forecast to only be around 10 kt for the
next 48 hours...the presence of dry mid-level air surrounding the
cyclone may prevent significant strengthening from occurring. By 72
hours...though...the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5
kt and the outflow pattern is expected to improve...so there could
be some significant intensification occur at that time. The
official forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours...
and then slightly higher than ships due to Jeanne possibly moving
directly over the warm gulfstream similar to what Alex did earlier
this year. However...if Jeanne moves a little farther west...then
it would be over much cooler shelf water of 76-79f...and that would
likely result in a much weaker cyclone.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/2100z 26.1n 69.0w 85 kt
12hr VT 23/0600z 25.9n 69.7w 85 kt
24hr VT 23/1800z 25.9n 70.8w 90 kt
36hr VT 24/0600z 26.1n 72.2w 90 kt
48hr VT 24/1800z 26.5n 74.1w 95 kt
72hr VT 25/1800z 28.0n 78.0w 95 kt
96hr VT 26/1800z 30.5n 79.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 27/1800z 33.5n 78.0w 75 kt
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mascpa
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2003 10:43 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
- Contact:
Sounds promising for us here in SE Fl. ALthough the track seems to be east of the consensus track MW was talking about a little earlier. So I'm still a bit uneasy. I just wish Jeanne would hurry up and make up her mind where she wants to go and then go there. Will she at least speed up in the near future?
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ilmc172pilot
- Tropical Storm
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