Who Else Thinks Ivan Might Turn at the Last Minute ??

[vbhoutex]

If you watch the vis loop he is doing just that. A little pull to the left before beginning the right turn(not saying it will be hard right). Could be good news for Mobile and Terrible news for Pensacola and Gulf Breeze, my old home towns.

[Guest]

Hurricanes have always tended to bend to the left on landfall here on the North Gulf Coast and then resume its original motion, Winds are bolwing steady 15 - 20 knots here, with 30 - 35 knots in gust, we are 15 miles inland from Gulf. Power is blinking, some brownouts, its going downhill from here.

[Ivanova]

On September 8, a mystery forecaster
posted this:

" 6AM WED - 28.1N; 89.7W - 170 KTS - APPROACHING SE LOUISIANA "



I wonder why he didn't give out Ivan's landfall ??


Here is his entire post:


Tropical Cyclone Center

Tropical Wave

Joined: 08 Sep 2004
Posts: 1

Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:39 am Post subject: TROPICAL

CYCLONE CENTER - IVAN - 10:00AM EDT 08 SEPT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TCC HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION AND FORECAST

08 SEPTEMBER 2004
10:00AM EDT

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IVAN THREATENS WESTERN GREATER ANTILLES AND WILL TURN SIGHTS ON CENTRAL GULF COAST NEXT WEEK

HURRICANE IVAN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING. INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 115 KTS. HOWEVER, THE ULL THAT IS CAUSING SOME SHEARING OF THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE AWAY FROM IVAN THIS MORNING AND ALLOW THE STORM TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND EVEN MORE AS IT CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS THE CARRIBBEAN.

SYNOPTICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND/OR MAINTENANCE OF EXTREME INTENSITY AS IVAN CONTINUES THROUGH THE CARRIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT THIS MORNING, SUGGESTING A THREAT TO SW FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE MODELS MAY NOT BE ACCURATELY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME INTENSITY OF IVAN AND ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WHICH COULD TURN IVAN NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW LATITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL STEER IVAN MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THEREBY REDUCING THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND POSING AN EXTREME THREAT OF A CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

7-DAY FORECAST POSITIONS AND INTENSITY
TIMES ARE EDT

6AM THURS - 13.5N; 71.0 W -- 125 KTS

6AM FRI - 14.6N; 74.1W -- 135 KTS

6AM SAT - 17.3N; 78.8W -- 145 KTS -- SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA

6AM SUN - 19.7N; 83.9W -- 155 KTS -- SW OF W CUBA, APPROACH YUC CHANNEL

6AM MON - 22.2N; 86.9W - 155 KTS -- ENTERING THE SC GULF

6AM TUES - 25.0N; 88.2W - 165 KTS

6AM WED - 28.1N; 89.7W - 170 KTS - APPROACHING SE LOUISIANA

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER WARNINGS, WATCHES AND ALERTS:

HURRICANE WARNING: JAMAICA

HURRICANE WATCH: CAYMAN ISLANDS, WESTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA, CARRIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

HURRICANE ALERT (HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 7-DAYS): GULF COAST FROM GALVESTON, TEXAS TO KEY WEST, FLORIDA; ATLANTIC COAST FROM KEY WEST, FLORIDA TO MELBOURNE, FLORIDA.

FORECASTER GOMEZ "

[GalvestonDuck]

NOT AN OFFICIAL OR TRUSTED FORECAST!

[Ivanova]

NOT AN OFFICIAL OR TRUSTED FORECAST!

Did I say it was ??

I said it was posted by a "mystery forecaster"...
his first and last post here... probably run off
by the control freaks here




*

[Ivanova]

Who Else Thinks Ivan Might Turn at the Last Minute ??