What happens now since the models are coming together?

[dolphinslady]

Once the models begin to agree within 72 hours, what do they generally do? Do they grow closer together with the same trend? Do they tend to move together more westerly or easterly, if that is the 'trend'? Do they have a tendency to start to vary significantly again? Or what?

Obviously, we are quite concerned now considering we went to bed nearly out of the cone and this morning the models are all pointing to ECFL. We still have debris everywhere from Frances and flooding from Ivan the other day. Grrr.


Cheryl

[dolphinslady]

Bump...input please...

[Steve]

Depends on the particular system. When they are in GOOD agreement and stay that way, then usually they have a handle. Sometimes they'll spider out after a 48-72 hour period again. It just depends. I haven't looked at the spaghetti plots yet.

But it should be noted that the 12Z CMC now is in agreement with the 12Z NOGAPS for a dual Florida Landfall.

Steve

[Canelaw99]

Basically every one of these:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

has Jeanne landfalling in either southern FL (closer to Miami) or in south central FL (Port St. Lucie area) - geez....

[wjs3]

Depends. Sometimes model agreement means they are going to verify, sometimes it doesn't. For instance, models consistently tried to turn Ivan before they should have--most--and I say most because there is almost always an outlier--had the storm north of where it actually turned out to be over 72 hours.

So model unanimity does not mean verification at 72 hours, no. I think what you're seeing a lot of the more experienced people on the board react to is that the model trends are changing--like with Ivan, the models are shfting west more and more with each run.