WHAT AFFECTS WILL JEANNE HAVE ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA?

[bucman1]

[Beach0612]

Who knows - glad I still have my sandbags in place - at least it won't affect the Bucs game!

[bucman1]

[/quote]

[Beach0612]

So True!

[caneman]

:cry:

Depends. A quick mover at 15 to 20 mph and a landfall of say 120 mph would give us winds of 80mph assuming it came over top of us. The system is smaller than Frances though but bigger than Charley.

[inotherwords]

It will not have any affects. But it will have effects. In other words, if it affects us, we will see the effects. Sorry, I'm a grammar nut.

Anyway, rats! I just took down my plywood yesterday. I feel sorry for all of us in Florida, we really need a break.

[bucman1]

THANKS FOR THE CORRECTION -NEVER HAVE BEEN ONE TO CLAIM TO BE A ENGLISH MAJOR

[Anonymous]

It depends, if Jeanne stalls or moves very slowly in the next 24 hrs the chances are greater for a more eastern turn based on the forecast of the ridge weakening with time. Should Jeanne continue the cyclonic loop & pickup forward speed a more westerly track would likely occur.
The best guidance is to follow the trends which have moved the storm west every run for over 24 hrs now.
A good indicator of overall predicted storm track is located at the NHC site on the page listed as PROBABILITIES. Pick the location closest to your location and watch the precentage number. If the number increases the chance of the storm center passing within 65 nautical miles indicates a greater threat, the number falls indicates the chance is less of the storm moving near your direction.
At 5 AM the strongest probability is....W.Palm Beach to Ft. Pierce within 72 -120 hrs, however if you will notice the numbers on the west coast of Florida are increasing to a decent precentage with areas from Marco Island to Cedar key equal to Daytona Beach within 96 -120 hrs. This trend should be followed with every advisory to monitor for increase/decrease. Of course as the track is subjuct to rapid change, however a long term trend such as we have now does mean the models and forecast are in some agreement. As the storm moves the PROBABILITIES will increase to areas N/NW of the track into GA, ....maybe even AL. There are equal chances of the storm coming within 65 nautical miles of Pensacola or Mrytle Beach SC at 5 AM in the long range. We could be looking at another storm moving into the gulf before the turn north, its not without reason.
If you were watching the PROBABILITIES charts for Ivan you would have seen how the increasing numbers were rising to the west into LA while decreasing for the west coast of Florida and fell off to nothing for South Florida well before the storm was near landfall, or comment was made directly on impact by the NHC. These PROBABILITIES showed a strong threat to MS east to Pensacola with Mobile and Pensacola having the highest threat numbers.

Mike

[Hurrikaren]

Anyway, rats! I just took down my plywood yesterday.

So did we. Which is, of course, exactly why she is now headed directly for us.

[Hurrikaren]

A good indicator of overall predicted storm track is located at the NHC site on the page listed as PROBABILITIES. Pick the location closest to your location and watch the precentage number. If the number increases the chance of the storm center passing within 65 nautical miles indicates a greater threat, the number falls indicates the chance is less of the storm moving near your direction.
At 5 AM the strongest probability is....W.Palm Beach to Ft. Pierce within 72 -120 hrs, however if you will notice the numbers on the west coast of Florida are increasing to a decent precentage with areas from Marco Island to Cedar key equal to Daytona Beach within 96 -120 hrs. This trend should be followed with every advisory to monitor for increase/decrease. Of course as the track is subjuct to rapid change, however a long term trend such as we have now does mean the models and forecast are in some agreement. As the storm moves the PROBABILITIES will increase to areas N/NW of the track into GA, ....maybe even AL. There are equal chances of the storm coming within 65 nautical miles of Pensacola or Mrytle Beach SC at 5 AM in the long range. We could be looking at another storm moving into the gulf before the turn north, its not without reason.
If you were watching the PROBABILITIES charts for Ivan you would have seen how the increasing numbers were rising to the west into LA while decreasing for the west coast of Florida and fell off to nothing for South Florida well before the storm was near landfall, or comment was made directly on impact by the NHC. These PROBABILITIES showed a strong threat to MS east to Pensacola with Mobile and Pensacola having the highest threat numbers.

This is an extremely helpful bit of information to a board lurker with zero weather knowledge. Thanks!

[bucman1]

MIKE,THANKS FOR THE EXPLANATION-DO YOU SEE STRONG WINDS
IN THE TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG AREA?

[mascpa]

Very little, if any IMO.

[Sanibel]

No more than Frances if she curves, more if she doesn't. Even if it slammed the east coast at Ft Lauderdale, it would still be weakened by the time it tracked across us here...

[TampaFl]

General rule of them is; If it hits the east coast as a cat. 3 by the time it arrives on the west coast it would be a cat.2. Of course all of this depends on the forward speed ect. But you can generally excpect a i cat. drop by the time it arrives on the west coast.

I still have my storm panels up. I had planned on taking them down this weekend....NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!


Robert

[Betrock]

Hey Mike- Glad to see another Strike Probabilities 'Freak'. I religiously follow them. I even have a spreadsheet created to track them! They also anticipated Charlies 'last minute' turn toward Port Charlotte.

Do you happen to know what the Probabilites are based on? Because they seem to operate from a different set of parameters than the models or the official forcast tracks.

Thanks,
Betrock
Bradenton, FL

[Steve H.]

12Z NOGAPS and GFS have it going over Tampa. If this verifies you will be affected. The effects are unknown at this time

[cape_escape]

Hey Mike- Glad to see another Strike Probabilities 'Freak'. I religiously follow them. I even have a spreadsheet created to track them! They also anticipated Charlies 'last minute' turn toward Port Charlotte.

Do you happen to know what the Probabilites are based on? Because they seem to operate from a different set of parameters than the models or the official forcast tracks.

Thanks,
Betrock
Bradenton, FL

Good question, I'd like to know too. Thanks!

[cape_escape]

Question for anyone over here near Ft Myers, should we expect our city and schools to shut down again, over this, if it does hit the east coast?