Ivan with an eye!

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DJJordan
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#21 Postby DJJordan » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:43 am

He may be void of convection right now...but that could change in a hurry. I am still concerned about who gets the heaviest rainfall in SE Texas.
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ROCK
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#22 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:45 am

DJJordan wrote:He may be void of convection right now...but that could change in a hurry. I am still concerned about who gets the heaviest rainfall in SE Texas.



Hey DJJ....nice to see you here on this board instead of KHOU...... :D
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#23 Postby FritzPaul » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:12 pm

StrongWind wrote:
adelphi_sky wrote:Think about it. This storm has destroyed Grenada, performed the Jamaican Jerk flawlessly, flattened the Caymans, dodged Cuba, sprinted north. Hung out around the southeast US, then head north for a tour of the mid-atlantic states. Threw out a couple of tornadoes as if he wanted to write "Ivan was here" on a tree. Headed south. Made sure central FL pay for feeling a sigh of relief that it hit further west. Then back into to GOM because it needed strength after such an exhausting trip. Now ready to tour TX. That's impressive to me!!! :lol:


And he's still not done :eek: The NHC 5-day track shows him looping way south. Bet he comes around back east and into the GOM for another go at something.

SW


If he does that, then I quit. I'll just pack my bags and head north. :lol:
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#24 Postby otowntiger » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:50 pm

djti wrote:i think its actually more of a sign of how hes not developing or organizing........that low level spin has been visible all across the gulf......its never organized however because of the inability to keep convection over the center......he was actually more organized in the frames where the circulation wasnt visible because it was covered by convection.


Actually, he is quite organized. His center of circulation is quite impressive. However he's not at all potent, because there is virtually no convection as you say. There is a big difference between potentency and organization, one can be exclusive of the other.
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#25 Postby djti » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:52 pm

i disagree ;)

a well defined low level circulation does not a organized tropical system make (in the words of Yoda)
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#26 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:57 pm

How about move south to the BOC and return with vengence to the Panhandle later in the wk.
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#27 Postby DJJordan » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:58 pm

Thanks Rock.... I haven't even thought to post on here lately until today. Ivan looks better right now than 2 hours ago... but is still very disorganized. I think he is trying to organize as we speak.
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#28 Postby otowntiger » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:06 pm

djti wrote:i disagree ;)

a well defined low level circulation does not a organized tropical system make (in the words of Yoda)


Again, you and apparently Yoda, are confusing the meaning of the words, organized and potent. They are quite different.
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#29 Postby djti » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:10 pm

nope...not confused at all......an organized low level circulation is not an organized tropical system......which is the "organized" that im referring to...and the "organized" that is important.
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#30 Postby patsmsg » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:33 pm

Ivan the Lost.
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#31 Postby otowntiger » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:50 pm

djti wrote:nope...not confused at all......an organized low level circulation is not an organized tropical system......which is the "organized" that im referring to...and the "organized" that is important.


How bout this? We can agree to disagree, but I know we both agree that Ivan is not a strong or well developed tropical system. Organized low level circulations on the surface are always a precursor for development. In this case, however, he is regressing, which of course if very good for Southwest LA and Southeast TX. Rainfall could be a big concern depending on how slowly he moves and how much rain will catch up to the center.
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#32 Postby djti » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:53 pm

i refuse to agree to disagree.......a moral decision...... :lol:


he still has a little time....the latest burst of convection appears to not be totally blowing off and is on the west as well as nw side....
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