Jeanne - chance of southward drift, acceleration?

[KeyLargoDave]

I remember Andrew was caught under a strong high. Initial track was toward WPB, then Dade-Broward line, and as we know it tended enough south of west to get all the way to south dade.

Any opinions about the same scenario happening with Jeanne?

[miamijaaz]

I think for the next two days it's a strong possibility that she will move just south of due west, like Andrew did. However, if I recall, the ridge over Andrew stretched all the way across the Peninsula, and it was just as strong all the way through. This ridge does not appear to be as strong toward the western portion, which is why I think the models tend to shift her to the north of Dade county at the end of day 2.

Of course, the western side of the ridge could also build in forcing her on a more western direction like Andrew. What concerns me is the trend. All of the models have been slowly trending to the west and south since yesterday.

[KeyLargoDave]

Thanks Jazz. I'm watching that too.

I get very concerned that southward trending means we might have to evacuate with Dade, Broward and points farther north already packed with evacuees, no available hotel rooms, and places still recovering from Frances and Charley.

[jlauderdal]

I think for the next two days it's a strong possibility that she will move just south of due west, like Andrew did. However, if I recall, the ridge over Andrew stretched all the way across the Peninsula, and it was just as strong all the way through. This ridge does not appear to be as strong toward the western portion, which is why I think the models tend to shift her to the north of Dade county at the end of day 2.

Of course, the western side of the ridge could also build in forcing her on a more western direction like Andrew. What concerns me is the trend. All of the models have been slowly trending to the west and south since yesterday.

Its as simple as this:

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS HURRICANE JEANNE NEARS THE AREA.

THE KEY WEST SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 2.02
INCHES...YET MIAMI WAS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1.28 INCHES...QUITE A
DIFFERENCE! A PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF JEANNE WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER DRY AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...LIMITING ACTIVITY TO
ISOLATED IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW. KEPT INHERITED POPS REALLY ON THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOW POPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE SATURDAY AND
BEYOND...DUE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF JEANNE.

HOW BAD IT GETS LOCALLY ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE HURRICANE JEANNE GOES...OF
COURSE. AS OF 2 PM...JEANNE LIES AT THE LATITUDE OF MIAMI. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LIES NORTH OF JEANNE...AND THIS IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE JEANNE ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR AWHILE. IT ALL IS GOING TO
COME DOWN TO -- WHEN WILL ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS OCCUR IN THIS RIDGE TO
ALLOW JEANNE TO MOVE NORTHWEST. SEE THE LATEST FORECASTS ON JEANNE FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JEANNE. PLEASE REFER TO THIS
PRODUCT...MIAESFMIA...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

[Canelaw99]

Dave - I've started thinking about that too. Although, I must admit that I don't think there would be that many people evacing with this storm. The Monroe Cty. evac for Ivan (ended up being premature and needless) will assure that a lot of Monroe residents will stay put. Same for us here in Dade with having to evac for Frances. I know I, personally, will stay put unless it seems a direct hit coming this way. The next couple of days should be interesting....

[KeyLargoDave]

Thanks CaneLaw. If I have to evacuate because of serious surge threat, I'm probably going only as far as Homestead. Of course, that is the Andrew nightmare scenario too. So many people from the Keys ended up in collapsing homes with friends in Homestead in Andrew. Of course we're all hoping this one is no where near as strong....

For Ivan I waited a day after the evacuation started, then went on a mini-vacation/evacuation to the panhandle. That didn't work out so well.

[Canelaw99]

No, I can imagine it didn't - with this one it almost seems like Key West would be a decent option LOL

[KeyLargoDave]

Going southwest farther down the Keys is something we always talk about here. If it puts you on the safe side, and 100 miles farther away from the storm, then it's an option.

I was amazed that during Frances, the Keys actually did open shelters. We have a new high school on Plantation Key that is probably very strong. I know it seems insane to go from one barrier island to another, but...if you can get away from the surge, then it makes some sense.

But then with Ivan, Monroe County announced total evacuation and no shelters opening. And if a storm is sinking south, you could go all the way to Key West and get trapped, I suppose.

The great thing is, the Keys are mostly limestone, not sand. I don't care how hard the waves pound, we shouldn't lose any ground. The 18-mile stretch is high and shouldn't flood in advance of the storm, and Card Sound Road was raised as much as 5 feet in the last few years. And there are places in the Keys, especially the Upper Keys, that are 16 feet above sea level. My house might flood while a few blocks toward US 1 the road is a lot higher.

Everyone stay safe.

BTW -- does anyone have recommendations on safe distance from the coast/high ground in Homestead? Where abouts are you located, CaneLaw?

[Canelaw99]

Dave - I'm actually in an evacuation zone because I'm east of US1, aroundabouts the Prime Outlet Mall (in Keys Gate). There is a Hampton Inn and a few other hotels right at the end of the Turnpike here in Homestead - would be worth a couple of phone calls probably. Beyond that, the next best would probably be the Cutler Ridge area. I don't think that the Dadeland Mall area is in an evac/flood zone, and I know there are a few places to stay around there....hope it helps

[ColdWaterConch]

Unless they changed the zones, DL is not.

In Andrew, I lived in "Mangowood", which was right off of Coral Reef Drive (152 St), about 1 mile east of US1. We were technically in an evac zone, although we stayed. There was no flooding.

My father lives in KW. He evac'd for Ivan...wont be doing that again unless more certain next time.