Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 41
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2004
...Jeanne moving a little faster to the west-northwest...
...Expected to turn westward by Friday...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northwest Bahamas. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the watch area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and
San Salvador.
Interests on the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the
progress of Jeanne.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 70.3 west or about 425
miles... 680 km...east of great abaco island.
Jeanne is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the west at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected to occur later tonight or Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Jeanne could become a major hurricane on Friday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb...28.53 inches.
Dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by large swells generated
by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible along the southeastern U.S.
Coast and the northwest and central Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...25.9 N... 70.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 966 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
5pm Jeanne-105 mph winds, 966 mb pressure
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Brent
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Track looks to be close to the last one, only a little farther west on Sunday-Tuesday.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
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Josephine96
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adelphi_sky
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Brent
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More bad news...
Initial-25.9 N 70.3 W 90 kt
12 hr-25.9 N 71.5 W 95 kt
24 hr-25.8 N 73.4 W 100 kt
36 hr-25.8 N 75.5 W 105 kt(120 mph)
48 hr-26.1 N 76.8 W 105 kt
72 hr-27.9 N 81.3 W 75 kt-Inland south of Orlando
96 hr-31.5 N 81.5 W 55 kt-Inland near Brunswick, GA
120 hr-36.0 N 77.0 W 35 kt-Inland near Edenton, NC
Initial-25.9 N 70.3 W 90 kt
12 hr-25.9 N 71.5 W 95 kt
24 hr-25.8 N 73.4 W 100 kt
36 hr-25.8 N 75.5 W 105 kt(120 mph)
48 hr-26.1 N 76.8 W 105 kt
72 hr-27.9 N 81.3 W 75 kt-Inland south of Orlando
96 hr-31.5 N 81.5 W 55 kt-Inland near Brunswick, GA
120 hr-36.0 N 77.0 W 35 kt-Inland near Edenton, NC
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cape_escape
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Your awsome!!!-
Brent
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Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 41
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2004
while the eye of Jeanne has become a little more distinct...
satellite imagery also indicates that the overall convective
structure has changed little this afternoon...so the intensity is
being maintained at 90 kt. The next recon flight into Jeanne will
be around 24/06z
the initial motion is 290/06. Jeanne has been wobbling in a general
west-northwestward motion the past 9 hours...but a turn toward to
the west is expected to begin later tonight or early Friday. This
has been the year for wraparound ridges...and 12z upper-air data
indicate that Jeanne is caught in such a pattern. However...all of
the global and regional models agree that the western portion of
the ridge across Florida will gradually weaken over the next 12-24
hours...which should allow Jeanne to move westward at a faster
forward speed. All of the models are generally in good agreement on
a strong ridge/high currently located over Pennsylvania and West
Virginia moving southeastward to near eastern North Carolina in
about 48-60 hours. However...there are enough subtle differences
that could determine if...when...and where Jeanne could make
landfall along the Florida East Coast. The ETA...NOGAPS...and GFDN
models are the farthest south and bring Jeanne across South Florida
and to near the Tampa Bay area. The other models remain just inland
from the Florida East Coast with landfall between West Palm Beach
and Cape Canaveral. The forecast track was nudged slightly south
and west based on the GFDL...GFS...and UKMET models having
initialized the ridge too weak...by about 20 meters at 500 mb.
Users are cautioned to not focus on the specific forecast points
due to forecast uncertainty...the large size of the hurricane...and
because Jeanne could take a more rounded path near landfall than
implied by simply connecting the 48 and 72 hour forecast points. A
60-hr point would be close to 26.7n 79.8w with a 100-kt intensity.
The SHIPS model and the various global models now indicate that
south to southwesterly upper-level shear may hold off until Jeanne
gets near the Florida East Coast in about 60 hours. This may allow
Jeanne to strengthen into a major hurricane as the cyclone moves
over increasingly warmer water...83-84f...located from the
northwest Bahamas westward to the Southeast Florida coast.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/2100z 25.9n 70.3w 90 kt
12hr VT 24/0600z 25.9n 71.5w 95 kt
24hr VT 24/1800z 25.8n 73.4w 100 kt
36hr VT 25/0600z 25.8n 75.5w 105 kt
48hr VT 25/1800z 26.1n 77.8w 105 kt
72hr VT 26/1800z 27.9n 81.3w 75 kt...inland
96hr VT 27/1800z 31.5n 81.5w 55 kt...inland
120hr VT 28/1800z 36.0n 77.0w 35 kt...inland
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2004
while the eye of Jeanne has become a little more distinct...
satellite imagery also indicates that the overall convective
structure has changed little this afternoon...so the intensity is
being maintained at 90 kt. The next recon flight into Jeanne will
be around 24/06z
the initial motion is 290/06. Jeanne has been wobbling in a general
west-northwestward motion the past 9 hours...but a turn toward to
the west is expected to begin later tonight or early Friday. This
has been the year for wraparound ridges...and 12z upper-air data
indicate that Jeanne is caught in such a pattern. However...all of
the global and regional models agree that the western portion of
the ridge across Florida will gradually weaken over the next 12-24
hours...which should allow Jeanne to move westward at a faster
forward speed. All of the models are generally in good agreement on
a strong ridge/high currently located over Pennsylvania and West
Virginia moving southeastward to near eastern North Carolina in
about 48-60 hours. However...there are enough subtle differences
that could determine if...when...and where Jeanne could make
landfall along the Florida East Coast. The ETA...NOGAPS...and GFDN
models are the farthest south and bring Jeanne across South Florida
and to near the Tampa Bay area. The other models remain just inland
from the Florida East Coast with landfall between West Palm Beach
and Cape Canaveral. The forecast track was nudged slightly south
and west based on the GFDL...GFS...and UKMET models having
initialized the ridge too weak...by about 20 meters at 500 mb.
Users are cautioned to not focus on the specific forecast points
due to forecast uncertainty...the large size of the hurricane...and
because Jeanne could take a more rounded path near landfall than
implied by simply connecting the 48 and 72 hour forecast points. A
60-hr point would be close to 26.7n 79.8w with a 100-kt intensity.
The SHIPS model and the various global models now indicate that
south to southwesterly upper-level shear may hold off until Jeanne
gets near the Florida East Coast in about 60 hours. This may allow
Jeanne to strengthen into a major hurricane as the cyclone moves
over increasingly warmer water...83-84f...located from the
northwest Bahamas westward to the Southeast Florida coast.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/2100z 25.9n 70.3w 90 kt
12hr VT 24/0600z 25.9n 71.5w 95 kt
24hr VT 24/1800z 25.8n 73.4w 100 kt
36hr VT 25/0600z 25.8n 75.5w 105 kt
48hr VT 25/1800z 26.1n 77.8w 105 kt
72hr VT 26/1800z 27.9n 81.3w 75 kt...inland
96hr VT 27/1800z 31.5n 81.5w 55 kt...inland
120hr VT 28/1800z 36.0n 77.0w 35 kt...inland
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Josephine96
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cape_escape
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