Larry Cosgrove Tropical Wx outlook, Thur. 9/23/04

[Weatherman911]

Larry Cosgrove Tropical Wx outlook, Thur. 9/23/04

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
(monitoring tropical or subtropical disturbances in the oceanic theaters of the northern hemisphere)

Once impacted by the long outflow umbrella of Hurricane Karl (now pulling away toward Greenland and Iceland), Tropical Storm Lisa is in the process of merging with a large tropical wave between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde Islands.

Lisa is being impacted by northerly shear due to its proximity to a TUTT signature positioned along the coastline of western Africa into the Azores. As the storm consolidates and progresses westward, warming SSTs and a favorable vertical profile will allow for growth and strengthening, so that by the time Lisa approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in about five days it should be a major hurricane.

If some of the NWP schemes are correct in pacing a broad trough over eastern North America after Day 7, Lisa probably will recurve into the Atlantic Ocean after possibly impacting PR. I cannot rule out a threat to Bermuda from Lisa.

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