Ivan (Mathew) is coming back from the dead

[Stormcenter]

This is from the NHC's 10:30am outlook.



Satellite images...along with ship and buoy reports...indicate the
low pressure area in the central Gulf of Mexico may be organizing
into a tropical cyclone. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
near the surface center this morning...and wind gusts to tropical
storm force have been reported. Upper-level winds are currently
only marginally favorable for additional development to occur...but
conditions may become more favorable by Thursday as the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Interests along the north
central and northwestern Gulf Coast and over adjacent waters should
closely monitor the progress of this weather system during the next
few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system this afternoon.

[ROCK]

This is from the NHC's 10:30am outlook.

Satellite images...along with ship and buoy reports...indicate the
low pressure area in the central Gulf of Mexico may be organizing
into a tropical cyclone. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
near the surface center this morning...and wind gusts to tropical
storm force have been reported. Upper-level winds are currently
only marginally favorable for additional development to occur...but
conditions may become more favorable by Thursday as the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Interests along the north
central and northwestern Gulf Coast and over adjacent waters should
closely monitor the progress of this weather system during the next
few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system this afternoon.

its trying to get to the surface if it hasnt done so in the past hour. Alot of convection increased right over the MLC this am. Pressures out there are dropping.

[Houstonia]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

Coastal flood watch
Small craft Advisory
Hazardous Weather Outlook

[Johnny]

Thanks for the update. Shear is playing a factor in development right now but that could change by tomorrow.

[becca1695]

It looks as though Ivan is coming back to get those areas he missed last week!

[frederic79]

Unbelievable! And I still have piles of debris in my front yard from Ivan. Geez...

[ROCK]

Unbelievable! And I still have piles of debris in my front yard from Ivan. Geez...

Its like a bad horror movie....THE RETURN OF IVAN...

[djti]

the naming will be interesting......saw a loop on TWC the other day that would suggest "ivan" may be appropriate....

[ROCK]

the naming will be interesting......saw a loop on TWC the other day that would suggest "ivan" may be appropriate....

the NWC/TPC wont even hint at a name right now. Weird..

[yoda]

The name would be MATTHEW or NICOLE... depending on which is named first.

[Stormcenter]

The name would be MATTHEW or NICOLE... depending on which is named first.

On Monday the NHC (Mayfield) said it would be called Ivan
again. Now I'm not sure if that is still their plan today if it
does strengthen to a TS. So it could be Ivan or Matthew.

[Hyperstorm]

I really doubt that Ivan will be used again.

First, the technical reason:

This is NOT the same EXACT surface low that was Ivan. It is only a piece of energy that was associated with Ivan when it was near the Appalachians. The surface low (as you can probably verify from last week's surface maps) moved NE through the New England area.

They have also changed the policy of when a system moves into the EPAC from the Atlantic. If it doesn't maintain its status as a tropical cyclone or loses its surface low while it crosses into the EPAC and regenerates, it will have a totally new name. Even though the technicalities were not made specifically for the situation we're encountering now, I think this applies here...a different surface reflection...a different name.

And last reason:

Emotional. People who suffered the fate of Ivan DON'T want to be remembered of its name. They will be devastated to hear that Ivan has returned.

There shouldn't be a reason for the NHC to use this name again...

[HalloweenGale]

Could be like 1991, they didnt name the "HalloweenGale"

[Hyperstorm]

Could be like 1991, they didnt name the "HalloweenGale"

If it's going to strike land it will have a name. The only reason why the 1991 unnamed storm wasn't named was because it wasn't a threat to the United States and they didn't want to create unnecessary panic...

[HalloweenGale]

From what? a fish storm known as GRACE?

[Josephine96]

I wish they would have renamed Ivan.. matthew lol.. Ivan has caused enough trouble

[bartman]

I just cannot agree on reusing the name of Ivan for the new tropical disturbance in the GOM. Ivan made landfall in the FL panhandle, and last I recall died a slow death in the northeast US as its center of circulation eventually decayed. The name should remain exclusively with the storm that is tracked by its center of circulation. Any so-called remnants that spawn a new tropical system many days later (and more than a 1000 miles from the original center of the tropical system) should have a new name.

Can you just imagine if Ivan #2 were to become a serious storm and cause extensive damage to the US? Years from now we'd be asking "Which Ivan are you referring to?"

I just disagree with the NHC on what they did on this one. Maybe the new Ivan will just be a rain maker of little consequence. Independent of the name, I hope it is inconsequential.