12z COAMPS Ft. Lauderdale.... Based off the 12z NOGAPS...

[ericinmia]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004092412

Speaks for itself.
It is based off the new 12z NOGAPS run.
-Eric

[Foladar]

Ft. Lauderdale would mean hurricane winds down thru Florida City / Homestead maybe?

[yoda]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=27km_watl&prod=500&dtg=2004092412

Speaks for itself.
It is based off the new 12z NOGAPS run.
-Eric

I know its based off the 12z run... but I STILL think that's too far west IMO. Into the Gulf, I think not.

[Jevo]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=27km_watl&prod=500&dtg=2004092412

Speaks for itself.
It is based off the new 12z NOGAPS run.
-Eric

I know its based off the 12z run... but I STILL think that's too far west IMO. Into the Gulf, I think not.

Godbless ya Yoda you are the Right outlier..... we need one hwere tho to keep us honest... This actually from Stewar hints they the NHC will start to open itself for a gradual W shift.... Its very "Read Between The Lines NHC Type Stuff"

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A
DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS NOW
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ELONGATE
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP JEANNE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO MISS THE FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS
DRIVES JEANNE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE
RECURVATURE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JEANNE ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR...AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION AS SHOWN BY THE GFDLAND GFS.

[hurricane1020]

when was this model ran

[Foladar]

Ft. Lauderdale would mean hurricane winds down thru Florida City / Homestead maybe?

[yoda]

THe NOGAPS has been excellent on jumping on the WESTWARD TRENDS ... but the end game result ends up being slightly east ... NOGAPS did so with Frances and Ivan ... (NOGAPS was the first to jump on the shift westward, but ENDED UP being TOO FAR WEST) ... Ivan, NOGAPS depicted a N'Orleans hit, when in actually, it was about 100 miles east ...

The NOGAPS has a leftward bias with TC's due to the progressiveness of the model ...

(That is from Stormsfury... NOT ME...)

[caneman]

THe NOGAPS has been excellent on jumping on the WESTWARD TRENDS ... but the end game result ends up being slightly east ... NOGAPS did so with Frances and Ivan ... (NOGAPS was the first to jump on the shift westward, but ENDED UP being TOO FAR WEST) ... Ivan, NOGAPS depicted a N'Orleans hit, when in actually, it was about 100 miles east ...

The NOGAPS has a leftward bias with TC's due to the progressiveness of the model ...

(That is from Stormsfury... NOT ME...)

This is me and not Stormsfury. They have been better consistantly with their track even though the end result may not have been exact.

[Foladar]

I give up nobody wants to answer

[hurrmia]

foladar if it ft lauderdale miami will feel hurricane and south dade will feel gust to hurricane wind.