They call that a shift west in the track??

[Derek Ortt]

there are two specialists on duty tonight due to the high activity. The forecasters besides lawrence and avila are NOT hurricane specialists, and work for TAFB, not NHC (both are a part of TPC though)

[tronbunny]

Hey Toho..
notice that the 11pm advisory track takes the storm directly over our heads at 2pm sunday at somewhere between 75-45kt ????

I don't think I like Avila tonite.

[NFLnut]

He may not write as well because English isn't his first language. I didn't know this until I read a book on Hurricane Mitch and he was quoted and discussed often in the book. He's from Cuba originally.

Not defending him, just trying to offer a possible explanation about his writing style.

I don't think it's his writing "style" they have a problem with, it's apparently his "substance."

[LakeToho]

Tron - I am not liking any of this right now.. I wish the SFLA people who see this comming their way, are right.. Unfortunately, I cant be sure they are correct, so I have to prepare according to what the NHC is saying.

Charley's eye went right over me, and Frances grazed us.. Went without power for 12 days, I have 3/4 my roof off my house, lots of water damage in the house, fighting with the insurance company on amounts they are giving, and while I am lake fronte, 2 of my 3 acres of property are underwater, with alligators swimming around. Definitely hope NHC is wrong.. Take it South, take it east, take it North, anywhere but here.

[Cookiely]

from what I have heard, the track is created by the forecaster on duty, not by a team of forecaster. There is typically just one forecaster on duty at a time.

Thank you Derek for settling this issue because I have seen many explanations for how the forecasting is done. Most thought it was a round table discussion, and I kept picturing very loud arguments pro or con on forecast and tracks.

[miamijaaz]

During Frances, whenever it was his turn to give the advisory, Avila consistently changed the track from a landfall in east central Florida to a landfall in GA/SC. Forecaster Stewart at the next advisory would promptly change the track back to a landfall in east central Florida. This happened TWICE over two consecutive days.

It's my understanding that the reason Avila was doing this was because he puts alot of faith in the GFS model, which unfortunately for him has a right-track-bias which ended up selling him down the river.

[tronbunny]

I feel your pain.
Is there anything a neighbor like me can do for you?

[LakeToho]

I am not in agreement with Derek on this one. However, at the present time its not the most pressing issue. I can knock heads with Derek another time. However, with that being said, one person does not change the forecast track. It is a concensus.. too much at stake right now for one person to make the decision. I mean we are not talking about George Bush doing the forecast (oops sorry no politics)

[Hyperstorm]

I am not in agreement with Derek on this one. However, at the present time its not the most pressing issue. I can knock heads with Derek another time. However, with that being said, one person does not change the forecast track. It is a concensus.. too much at stake right now for one person to make the decision. I mean we are not talking about George Bush doing the forecast (oops sorry no politics)

Just notice the next time there's a shift in the forecast track. You'll notice right away that the forecaster will say something like "I have decided to make a shift to the...". That tells you right there that the forecaster on shift's analysis weighs a lot when making a forecast...

[tronbunny]

I am not in agreement with Derek on this one. <snip>.. too much at stake right now for one person to make the decision. I mean we are not talking about George Bush doing the forecast (oops sorry no politics)

I'll go with you on this...
I'd like Dereks forecast better. but anything inbetween NHC and Derek's still whups us bad, again.
How's about you go get some rest, I will, and I'll be up at the crack o' dawn to finish up the few hours of work left.
Oh, and convince the WDW people to close the "F'in" parks well before 8pm!!!!

[Windy]