2AM Advisory: 26.5N 75.6W...105 MPH

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:41 am

Dooh. Jeanne moving due west and strengthening:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT1.0409250533

MW

#2 Postby **THead** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:47 am

sigh, and faster too, 14mph

#3 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:47 am

Folks...please note that this forward motion from 03Z is much faster!

The 11PM position was 26.5 74.9W
The 2AM postion is 26.5 75.6W

Could be an abberation...note this is .7 degrees of motion in 3 hours...which is close to 14 knots of forward motion!

Not not good.

MW

logybogy · #4 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:49 am

Faster motion = stronger high.

Expect the north wobbles to cease and some southerly components to start like Andrew.

I think that's what some of the models having landfall in Ft. Lauderdale are picking up on.

Foladar · #5 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:51 am

How far out are hurricane winds, and tropical storm winds? MW, do you know how far Florida City is from Ft Lauderdale in miles? :|

cape_escape · #6 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:51 am

This is not what I was hoping for! Thanks for keeping us posted MW, you must be tired by now!

#7 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:51 am

Most likely not good for the Tampa Bay area or the West Coast of Florida. Thoughts MW?

Robert

Foladar · #8 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:52 am

cape_escape wrote:This is not what I was hoping for! Thanks for keeping us posted MW, you must be tired by now!

he aint the only one

I've been watching every advisory for 48 hours, makes you wonder..I like watching the progression.

#9 Postby **THead** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:53 am

if it maintains that speed and course its only about 18 hours from landfall..........

Ziplock48 · #10 Postby **Ziplock48** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:54 am

What do you think the implications of the increase in speed may have with regard to the forcast turn towards the NW then North?
Will she accelerate around the edge of the high...or heavens to Betsey (sorry, bad joke) keep barrelling forward, maintaining the westward motion?

Did you expect this increase in speed? sorry if I missed your call in an earlier post today. Frankly, I've delayed my constant obsessive reading of the board for most of the day...I needed a break. But with the faster speed, I now feel that time is of the essence.

Again, Mike, I always appreciate your synoptic reasoning. You da man. for me, anyway, you make it soooo clear. Thanks a million for all your hard work.
Best,
Zip

LakeToho · #11 Postby **LakeToho** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:54 am

logybogy wrote:Faster motion = stronger high.

Expect the north wobbles to cease and some southerly components to start like Andrew.

I think that's what some of the models having landfall in Ft. Lauderdale are picking up on.

Which models have landfall in FTL ? Maybe the NOGAPS. but no other .. Andrew did not wobble south until it was near or over the gulfstream. Another day tommorow of this and we shall see what occurs.

KeyLargoDave · #12 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:55 am

Foladar, Florida City is about 50 miles from "downtown" Fort Lauderdale.

Latest advisory shows

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

HTH

Foladar · #13 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:04 am

KeyLargoDave wrote:Foladar, Florida City is about 50 miles from "downtown" Fort Lauderdale.

Latest advisory shows

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

HTH

oooh, so if it lands in FT L then I get hurricane winds?? doh. doubt it'll hit there tho, do you know how far I am from Palm Beach?

cape_escape · #14 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:20 am

Kevin_Cho wrote:Wait...another thing. I noticed that in the last 2 frames of the satellite imagery, it looks as if this storm may acutally begin a constant just barely south of West track towards Florida City, then turn more WNW and go straight through collier if it follows the high pressure system gradually instead of just on the boundaries. If so, this could really bring some bad news to Collier County, where almost NO ONE has prepared, no one cares nemore....

Kevin Cho - naples, FL

Same here in Lee county...

cape_escape · #15 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:25 am

Kevin_Cho wrote:Yea, btw, Cape. My dad just got called in to the EOC, he says the Lee County EOC has just conviened as well, they are in a joint teleconference meeting with the NHC in Miami. We should be getting news flashses soon about possible shelters etc. This may be going for aturn in to the worst. My dad was never called in at 2 AM to the EOC, they always waiote till at least 5 AM to call him in, this must b seriousoyus, and with Lee county doing thes ame, who knows what my be ahppening, sorry about the bad spelling atm, my keyboard needs new batteries, which i'm getting right now lol. Good luck to you in the Cape (and Bonita to),

Kevin Cho - Naples, FL

Thanks Kevin! Please, keep me posted! Good luck to you as well!

#16 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:25 am

OK...geting way too sleepy...night night all. See you in the morning. Jeanne keeps-on-o-coming.

MW

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:27 am

Ziplock48 wrote:What do you think the implications of the increase in speed may have with regard to the forcast turn towards the NW then North?
Will she accelerate around the edge of the high...or heavens to Betsey (sorry, bad joke) keep barrelling forward, maintaining the westward motion?

Tropical cyclones can't go the same speed or faster; just as an automobile or human being cannot make a turn without slowing down.

2AM Advisory: 26.5N 75.6W...105 MPH

2AM Advisory: 26.5N 75.6W...105 MPH

good evening Mike

Re: good evening Mike

Who is online