the next Med storm...tonight!!!

[KWT]

Matthew the 95 event happened in the heart of winter,SST weren't even 20C at that time.

however last year a tropical depression DID form in the south med,with SSt in the region of 28,thanks to the heatwave last year.

[Matthew5]

The Med hurricane of 1995

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... c1601a.gif

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... c1601b.gif

Tropical storm that formed last year...
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... c2003a.gif

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... c2003b.gif


Black sea cyclones
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... cksea1.gif

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... cksea2.gif

Moroccan vortex
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... rocco1.gif

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... rocco2.gif

[KWT]

here's an image of the 2003 event,what do you guys think:

[Benlanka]

What I ment, Matthew5, was that the vortex of 1995 had a large resemblance to a polar low. I am not suggesting it actually was one. The system's structure and the way it formed had a lot of similarities with polar lows that form off the coast of Norway during the winter time. Researchers believe the Med. vortexs could be caused by a strong NWrly flow over the European continent, strongly pushing air over the Alps causing mid-level vortices to form. This happens pretty much in the same way as polar lows form off the Norwegian mountains when a strong NErly flow pushes the air over those mountains and causes polar lows to form in the northen parts of the North Sea.

I know the Med. seawater temperatures are about 24-26°C but there is no uniformal minimal temperature at which tropical storms can or cannot form. There is no physical boundary for this. So it could very well be that, if tropical storm could form in the Med. sea, it would require much higher SSTs like 28 to 30°C rather than the often-referenced 27°C. This due to the small space for storms to form and the much stronger Coriolisforce involved.

The 2003 hurricane-alike system was actually a cut-off ULL (Upper-Level Low) which after a couple of days began developing downward to the surface and created a nice core-wrapping also partly due to it's positioning near the Gulf of Gabès. Think of it as leaves spinning in a circle when pushed into a streetcorner. A mini-vortex or tornado sort to speak (not to be taken literarly ofcourse).

Anyway, to close off my contribution to Storm2k for the day, these systems have been investigated thoroughly over the last couple of years, mesoscale models have even been used, and the conclusion so far is that these Med. vortices are not common extratropical systems, have a somewhat resemblance to polar lows, but indeed have a few tropical charateristics. But never the less these vortices aren't fully tropical either, thus making them a sort of hybrid circulation/vortex type that, for the time being, cannot really be categorised under any known type of mesoscale circulation. But they remain a fasinating subject to study .

P.S. these vortices ofcourse can still bring heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds from time to time. But that's common for most rapid developing (extratropical) storms .

[KWT]

tropical or not,the 95 storm gave 85mph gusts, and a lot of rain to boot.

these things can be every bit as dangerous as hurricanes if they can spin up enough.

[KWT]

thunderstorms are also kicking off:

[P.K.]

Still 50 minutes to go

[Matthew5]

The Brazil weather people where calling this Extratropical??? This was clearly a hurricane!!!

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... 251030.gif


http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... 251700.gif


http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... 261310.gif


http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... 261339.gif

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... 271145.gif

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... 271358.gif

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... 280640.gif

[senorpepr]

DWD Analysis

(Notice the first part of Ivan along with Karl in the Eastern Atlantic.)

[KWT]

I must admit that defiantly looks like a hurricane.

[P.K.]

More stuff on Hurricane Catarina

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/brazil/brazil.html

[senorpepr]

Europe IR animation (via AFWA)
https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/images/sa ... IR01_L.GIF

[Buck]

Whoa! Cool!

[senorpepr]

I'm still not along with the Med Vortex thing.

I see that Metcheck posted this along as a few British weather boards. However, I don't see a remote chance of a tropical system forming from this. This system is not barotropic at all. There's plenty of temperature advection associated with it.

(From the fine folks at the USAFE OWS; you also have Karl off the western edge of the screen and Ivan approaching Iceland)
http://ows.public.sembach.af.mil/gifIma ... alysis.gif

I agree with a deepening low. This is expect for transition season for the Adriatic. Tropical formation.... I really wonder where this idea came from.

Here's a good synoptic discussion for Europe. It kinda mentioned that story for this low, although I wish SSgt Humphreys would have put more effort into this bulletin for the Balkans' system.

Code: Select all

FOEU20 ETAX 242300
THEATER METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION-EUROPE/MEDITERRANEAN
THE UKMO MODEL IS THE MODEL OF CONSISTENCY FOR THE USAFE OWS.
CURRENT PERFORMANCE IS DISCUSSED IN PARA B AND C BELOW.
.
A. THEATER UPPER AIR/SATELLITE ANALYSIS (BASED ON 12Z DATA):
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS MERIDIONAL WITH THE L/W TROUGH
STRETCHING NW/SE THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN EUROPE AND WESTERN
RUSSIA.  RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC AND SW
ASIA.  THE PFJ OUTLINES THE L/W PATTERN WITH A 135KT JMAX WEST
OF ICELAND.  A SECOND JMAX OF 105KTS OVER FRANCE IS PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ITALY AND THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH. A
135KT JMAX IS PUSHING NE ACROSS THE UKRAINE.  TWO FINGERS OF
THE STJ ARE SEEN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE THEATER, ONE
OVER MOROCCO THE SECOND OVER THE EASTERN MED.  AT 500MBS
SEVERAL COLD POCKETS AROUND THE LOW OVER SCANDINAVIA SUPPORT
S/W TROUGHS AFFECTING A MAJORITY OF THE EUROPEAN CONTINENT.
A M26C COLD POCKET OVER SOUTHERN GERMANY ALONG WITH MAJOR S/W
TROUGHING SUPPORTS AN UNSTABLE WAVE OVER ITALY WITH LOW
CENTERED OVER THE ADRIATIC SEA.  A M23C COLD POCKET ALONG WITH
THE 135KT JMAX WEST OF ICELAND SUPPORTS THE NEXT INCOMING MAJOR
S/W OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH A MATURE WAVE EVIDENT AT THE
SURFACE.  NORTHERLY FLOW IS STILL PREDOMINANT OVER THE UK AND
GERMANY.
.
B. MODEL INITIALIZATION/VERIFICATION (BASED ON UKMO UNLESS
NOTED):  THE MODEL INITIALIZED WELL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, THE MODEL TRIED TO SHOW CYCLOGENISIS OVER NORTH WEST
ITALY, WHILE OBSERVED CONDITIONS SHOWED A LOW OVER THE
ADRIATIC SEA.  BY THE 18Z VERIFICATION POINT THE MODEL
SEEMED TO CATCH UP WITH OBSERVED DATA SHOWING THE LOW IN THE
CENTRAL ADRIATIC. ALSO THE MODEL UNDERESTEMATED THE AMOUNT
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.
.
C. MM5 & OTHER MODEL COMPARISON:
BOTH MODELS PROVIDE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR ALL MAJOR SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
.
D. SEVERE WEATHER EMPHASIS:
POTENTIAL FOR 2" OR GREATER OF RAINFALL OVER CROATIA AND
BOSNIA. SEVERE TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ALONG THE
ADRIATIC COAST LINES AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
.
E. REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS REGIME/AIR MASSES AND 24 HOUR
OUTLOOK:
.
GERMANY AND THE BENELUX:
A LOW OVER SCANDANAVIA WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PINWHEELING
AROUND IT AND INTO CE. THE LOW CENTER IS OVER SWEDEN. AT
300MB, THE POLAR FRONT JET, WITH A JET MAX OF 105 KNOTS,IS
CLIPPING WESTERN CE. THE JET OUTLINES THE L/W TROUGH OVER
WESTERN EUROPE.  AT 500MB A M26C COLD POCKET IS OVER
SOUTHERN GERMANY AND ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THAT AREA.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AT 700MB AND 850MB IN THIS AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LOOSENED AND SFC WINDS HAVE DROPPED
TO AROUND 5-10KTS THROUGHOUT THE AOR.
.
(25/0000Z-26/0000Z) OUTLOOK:
NEXT TROUGH IS SWINGING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO CE OVER
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE STABLE
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT 500MB DECREASING CHANCES
OF TSTM ACTIVITY OVER CE. CEILINGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
3,000 AND 10,000 FEET. CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1,500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.  THOSE AREAS
EXPERIENCING SHOWERS MAY SEE THEIR VISIBILITY REDUCED TO
BETWEEN 3,200 TO 9,000 METERS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BENELUX COAST. GUST FROM 25-30KTS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND
AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY . PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE A TRACE
TO .50"
.
UNITED KINGDOM:
THE ENTIRE UK REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ICELANDIC LOW IS STAMPED TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRELAND, AND
THE LOW ITSELF IS SITUATED JUST TO THE WEST OF IRELAND. 300MB
SHOWS THE PFJ WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WITH A 135KT JET MAX TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW. ANOTHER FINGER CLIPS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE UK AS IT OUTLINES THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH, SITUATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UK. MID LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS EVIDENT TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH A 500MB MINUS 23 COLD
POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPARSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH SATELLITE SHOWING
A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS ENTERING THE AREA. RADAR SHOWS ALL PRECIP
CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS REMAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15KTS.

(25/0000Z-26/0000Z) OUTLOOK:
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
ICELANDIC CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST, BRINGING UNFAVORABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE ATLANTIC, MAKING THE UK THE PRIMARY FORECAST TRACK FOR
THE BOUNDARY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS, ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WILL PLAGUE THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
12HR POINT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIP WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
AREA. STABILITY INDICES REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO
VERY ISOLATED. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED MAKING THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS DUE TO SHOWERS AND TERRAIN INDUCED. A
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PERSIST AND PRECIP WILL
RANGE FROM TRACE TO .50IN.
.
BALKANS AND THE BLACK SEA COAST:
THE REGION IS CURRENTLY UNDER MERIDONAL FLOW WITH A DEPPENING
TROF MOVING OVERHEAD.  THE TROF HAS A 105KT JET MAX  MOVING
INTO THE BASE SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE.  AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ITALY AND THE NORTHERN BLAKANS,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS TO THAT AREA.

(25/0000Z-26/0000Z) OUTLOOK:
THE NORTHERN BALKANS WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES, SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRECIP BEING HEAVY AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE FORM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15KTS WITH GUST TO
25KTS.  VISIBILITY WILL BE 1600 TO 8000 METERS IN RAIN AND
MIST.  CEILINGS WILL BE FROM 500FT TO 4000FT.  THE SOUTHERN
BALKANS WILL HAVE RAINSHOWERS IN THE EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES
UNRESCTRICTED TO 8000 METERS IN MIST.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 10KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE BLACK
SEA AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
RAINSHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 10KTS.  VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. PRECIP TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN BALKANS AND .25
TO 1 INCH IN THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
.
F. SPACE WEATHER
GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE FOR CURRENT INFORMATION:
HTTPS://OWS.SEMBACH.AF.MIL/SPACEWX
.
G. USAFE OWS OPERATIONS INFORMATION
GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
HTTPS://OWS.SEMBACH.AF.MIL/GIFIMAGES/OUTAGE.TXT
.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED EVERY 12 HOURS AND IS NOT AMENDED.
.
B-FLIGHT
PRODUCTION SUPERVISOR:  CAPT CLARK
PRODUCED BY:  SSGT HUMPHREYS

[KWT]

Yep I agree now senorpepr.

[senorpepr]

Yep I agree now senorpepr.

Nonetheless, thanks for bringing this up. It's always nice to see folks looking outside of the normal Atlantic basin.

[P.K.]

Here is the latest from Metcheck:

Mediterranean Vortex
Added [Saturday September 25 2004 : 11:06:17 AM]

Thunderstorms along with storm force winds up to 63mph are now in the Adriatic Sea as a Mediterranean Vortex begins to mature. The centre of the vortex is just West of Split and is around 15km in radius. The centre is now expected to drift South then Southeast with the strongest of the winds on the South-eastern flank. There is a small chance that an 'eye-like' could develop early tomorrow as the vortex moves South introducing a strong Gregale.

Also expected to develop during today then again tomorrow is a strong Mistral with winds of up to 50mph in the Gulf of Lions.

[senorpepr]

looking at a lot of the observations around there, I'm not seeing anything too exciting except for an occasional gust here and there -- which furthers the fact that this isn't a hurricane-like system. Actually, the winds aren't all that strong. As for an eye-like feature... looking at satellite now... uh... .I'm not so sure about that.

[P.K.]

I don't see an eye either looking at a higher resolution image. This small chance is probably very very small