Saturday morning Jeanne analysis/ forecast..

[SouthernWx]

At 10 a.m. this morning, hurricane Jeanne is located over Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas....and only 175 miles or so east of Palm Beach, Florida.

My reasoning since last evening has changed little. Jeanne is continuing westward, and will pass over Grand Bahama Island this afternoonand into southeastern Florida after dark. It now appears landfall will occur this evening in the Palm Beach /Martin/ St Lucie county area....but hurricane conditions will begin spreading inland along the Florida east coast this afternoon, well ahead of the eye.

After landfall, Jeanne is forecast to recurve over the Sunshine state....passing near/ over Lake Okeechobee, Lakeland, just west of Ocala and Gainesville....then northward into Georgia near Valdosta. Afterwords, Jeanne will come under the influence of the westerlies, and accelerate toward the northeast....the weakening tropical storm passing across central South Carolina....eastern North Carolina....extreme southeastern Virginia....and the southern Delmarva region before re-entering the Atlantic. Jeanne will also likely affect extreme southeastern New England, particularly Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard...either as a tropical storm or strong extratropical system.

Forecast intensity....I expect Jeanne to strengthen right up to the Florida southeast coast, and be a strong cat-3/ borderline cat-4 hurricane at landfall.....meaning sustained winds of 125-130 mph, with peak gusts possibly exceeding 150 mph in the northern eyewall. It's not forecast, but there is the possibility that Jeanne will reach category 4 intensity before landfall....135-145 mph sustained.

Once inland, Jeanne will begin weakening, but likely remain a hurricane well into northern Florida....meaning damaging winds of 75-100 mph or more will occur well inland near the forecast track.

Jeanne is potentially a very dangerous hurricane...and the large size of the storm will mean a long duration of hurricane conditions. If you haven't evacuated yet, and have been ordered to do so by local EMA officials, please leave now ASAP. Don't take this hurricane lightly....it will likely be much stronger than Frances was, and will cause a potentially devastating storm surge. The fact we are approaching the full moon in a couple days only makes the potential storm surge and coastal flooding situation more dangerous (higher tides always occur near the time of a full moon).


Currently:
10 a.m. EDT -- SAT SEPT 25, 2004
latitude 26.5 N - longitude 77.2 W...or over Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kts (110 mph), and the estimated central pressure is 956 mb/ 28.23".


Forecast:

+12 hrs
10 PM EDT SAT SEPT 25th
26.8 N - 79.8 W.......110 kts
(nearing Palm Beach and Martin county, Florida)


+24 hrs
10 AM EDT SUN SEPT 26th
27.9 N - 81.9 W........75 kts
(inland near Lakeland, Florida)


+36 hrs
10 PM EDT SUN SEPT 26th
29.8 N - 82.8 W........55 kts
(inland just northwest of Gainesville, Florida


+48 hrs
10 AM EDT MON SEPT 27th
32.0 N - 82.4 W........45 kts
(inland just southwest of Statesboro, Georgia)


+60 hrs
10 PM EDT MON SEPT 27th
34.0 N - 81.0 W........40 kts
(inland near Columbia, South Carolina)


+72 hrs
10 AM EDT TUE SEPT 28th
36.0 N - 78.0 W.........40 kts
(inland near Rocky Mount, North Carolina)


Extended forecast:


+96 hrs
10 AM EDT WED SEPT 29th
42.0 N - 68.0 W..........45 kts
(becoming extratropical just east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts)


+120 hrs
10 AM EDT THU SEPT 30th
50.0 N - 50.0 W..........45 kts
(extratropical well northeast of Newfoundland)


PW