5 PM DISCUSSION

[yoda]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 252032
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. JEANE
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. STRONGEST WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE
113 KNOTS REPORTED BY A RECON EARLIER TODAY. A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
950 MB WAS JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WHEN A
NEW DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS INLAND DECAY
MODEL....DSHIPS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...JEANNE SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND
THE HIGH TONIGHT. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF JEANNE TO THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NOW TO LANDFALL AND OVER
FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

IN FIVE DAYS...JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM
IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 27.1N 78.8W 100 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 27.7N 80.6W 110 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 28.7N 82.3W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 30.2N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 37.5N 76.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/1800Z 42.5N 65.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 30/1800Z 46.5N 52.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL