4 PM SAT Jeanne forecast analysis

[SouthernWx]

As I expected, hurricane Jeanne moved over Great Abaco Island and is currently moving near/ just north of Grand Bahama Island....resuming a more westerly course after a slight WNW jog as it passed over the northern tip of Great Abaco Island.

I expect landfall late this evening in the Palm Beach to Stuart/ Hobe Sound area. Due to the size of Jeanne, hurricane conditions will affect the Florida east coast from Broward county northward to Cape Canaveral....as well as inland over much of central and northwest Florida along the path of Jeanne's core.

Once inland just north of West Palm Beach.....I expect Jeanne to recurve near/ over Lake Okeechobee....Lakeland....pass just east of Cedar Key, then northward into Georgia...on a line from Valdosta to near Augusta. The westerlies will likely turn the weakening tropical storm northeastward and accelerate it across the Carolinas into southeast Virgina/ southern Chesapeake Bay and into the Atlantic. It's quite possible Jeanne will impact southeastern New England; particularly the Nantucket/ Martha's Vineyard/ Cape Cod area as either a tropical storm or strong extratropical storm in 72-96 hours.

Jeanne continues to slowly strengthen, and I expect the maximum sustained winds in the 125-130 mph range (110 kt) at landfall north of West Palm Beach...and a 135-140 mph cat-4 isn't out of the question.


Currently:
At 4 p.m. EDT SAT SEPT 25, hurricane Jeanne is centered near latitude 27.0 north and longitude 78.6 west. Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph (100 kts), and the estimated central pressure is 952 mb/ 28.11".


Forecast:

+6 hrs
10 PM EDT - SAT SEPT 25th
27.0 N - 79.8 W.....110 kts
(approaching Palm Beach and Martin counties)


+12 hrs
4 AM EDT - SUN SEPT 26th
27.2 N - 81.0 W.....100 kts
(inland near Lake Okeechobee)


+24 hrs
4 PM EDT - SUN SEPT 26th
28.8 N - 82.8 W.....75 kts
(along the Florida west coast near Yankeetown)


+36 hrs
4 AM EDT - MON SEP 27th
31.0 N - 83.5 W.....60 kts
(inland near Valdosta, Georgia)


+48 hrs
4 PM EDT - MON SEPT 27th
33.2 N - 82.8 W.....45 kts
(inland midway between Macon and Augusta, Georgia)


+60 hrs
4 AM EDT - TUE SEPT 28th
35.5 N - 80.5 W.....40 kts
(inland near Charlotte, North Carolina)


+72 hrs
4 PM EDT - TUE SEPT 28th
37.5 N - 77.0 W.....40 kts
(inland just west of Norfolk, Virginia)


+96 hrs
4 PM EDT - WED SEPT 29th
41.0 N - 70.0 W.....45 kts
(over water....becoming extratropical near Nantucket, Massachusetts)


+120 hrs
4 PM EDT - THU SEPT 30th
50.0 N - 50.0 W.....40 kts
(extratropical northeast of Newfoundland)

[birdwomn]

thanks for the forecast, particularly indicating the towns when inland, even if they are too close to home.

[calidoug]

Ft Pierce looks like a more likely "center of the eye" landfall target at this point.

[SouthernWx]

Ft Pierce looks like a more likely "center of the eye" landfall target at this point.

Thank you for that extensive forecast analysis Dr Mayfield (or are you Avila?

[yoda]

"Jeanne continues to slowly strengthen, and I expect the maximum sustained winds in the 125-130 mph range (110 kt) at landfall north of West Palm Beach...and a 135-140 mph cat-4 isn't out of the question."

Please explain this to me... I don't see how it strengthens much more... not when I see a bit of upper level wind shear and its continuous fight with dry air.. although it is winning the dry air fight.

[summerwx]

When Southernwx posted this, the hurricane was strengtheing slowly, as the falling central pressure indicated all afternoon. In addition, both the ships and gfdl forecast Jeanne with 110 knot winds near landfall (so did NHC). Jeanne is also about to cross the warm gulf stream.