West Caribbean - Sunday

[Sanibel]

While this wave never showed better than a less than 50% presence as far as potential, the fact that it is still there today makes it a feature worth watching. How many days have we been saying that? Well, that only speaks for itself.


As Hyperstorm pointed out, the west drift over to EPAC hasn't exactly occurred and the main energy has managed to hang over water. WV shows a distinct rounded wave partly over C.A., partly over the Caribbean. There's a drier border circling around the west periphery, so the feature is distinct.

After several loops I'm considering that a center could be forming near 16N-83W There's an active convection boil there whose speed looks slow enough to be suggestive of planting a center.

This wave is pretty far into the west Caribbean for formation, but its lingering progress suggests time to form. I don't see the synoptic disruption of several days ago around it any more.

It's possible it is poised for spin-up. If not, the material could drift up towards the Gulf...

[Sanibel]

Upon closer view this storm is acting very much like a forming system whose main energy has gone over land and is struggling to stay alive by keeping its mid-level convection over water. Seen this many times down here.

Visible Loop just catches a possible lower level center over NE Nicaragua at a slow drift. Because the system exists mainly at the mid and upper levels it is able to spread its convection up into the over water sections on the Honduras/Nicaragua corner there as it is doing.

Don't expect snap formation from this one. As it has been doing, it should continue to flare while struggling with land contact. The possibility for a center re-plant probably isn't that high...

[WeatherEmperor]

The past 2 days it appears to me that it flares up during the day time and sort of goes down at night only to flare back up the following day.

<RICKY>

[wxman57]

There's no surface low over water. If there IS any surface low, it appears to be inland over northeastern Guatemala. But the wave's moisture will likely track W-WNW into the southern BoC over the next 24-36 hours. From there, a number of models indicate moisture tracking northward toward the NW Gulf by next Wed-Thu and some type of a low formation. Certainly nothing will develop over the next 48 hours, though.

[cind52]

There's no surface low over water. If there IS any surface low, it appears to be inland over northeastern Guatemala. But the wave's moisture will likely track W-WNW into the southern BoC over the next 24-36 hours. From there, a number of models indicate moisture tracking northward toward the NW Gulf by next Wed-Thu and some type of a low formation. Certainly nothing will develop over the next 48 hours, though.

What is considered the NW Gulf? Cind52

[ColdFront77]

I believe the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is off the mid-to-upper Texas coast.

[Brent]

There's no surface low over water. If there IS any surface low, it appears to be inland over northeastern Guatemala. But the wave's moisture will likely track W-WNW into the southern BoC over the next 24-36 hours. From there, a number of models indicate moisture tracking northward toward the NW Gulf by next Wed-Thu and some type of a low formation. Certainly nothing will develop over the next 48 hours, though.

What is considered the NW Gulf? Cind52

TX and LA.

[dhweather]

Somewhere in South LA, they switch to "North Central", I suppose it's around Grand Isle or West of there.

[Sanibel]

If the center is over Guatemala it is moving more west than anything and will have trouble re-emerging over BOC. It is also moving fairly quickly.

Looks like an ITCZ related land-crashing wave at this point...