http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
Some data points to a weak el nino in the pacific but other data suggest that neutral conditions prevail.Read the whole information in the link above and you can have an opinion about what is going on with ENSO.
Mix signals at equatorial pacific about ENSO
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Mix signals at equatorial pacific about ENSO
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WeatherEmperor
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I dont think that El Nino will be forming right away. If it does it will be very weak. Just look at the sea surface temp anomolies from Oct 2 this year and you will notice that the area of warmer 1+ degree Celcius has actually shrunk a bit from the previous period.
<RICKY>
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif
<RICKY>
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif
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