Tampa and the GOM

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 070600
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN, BUT THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES WILL NOT TRANSLATE INTO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE 850 MB TO 500 MB LAYER
FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT BY SATURDAY, BUT NOT
FAST ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TIL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. I WILL STRIP OUT POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FT MYERS
AREA FOR TODAY. THE DRY AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT DOWN THERE TIL LATE. I
WILL ALSO STRIP POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

FOR NOW I WILL NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES TO THE WIND FIELD BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...REGARDLESS OF WHAT DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. HOW MUCH RAIN WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM IS
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE FLOODING IN
AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER WATER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS SURFACE PRESSURES DECREASE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD DECREASE AS WELL. AS STATED ABOVE THOUGH, WE MUST MONITOR
PRESSURES IN THE GULF AS A LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE GRADIENT WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND
SOME OF THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD MIX DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT MODELS DO HAVE THE BOTTOM LAYERS OF THE DRY AIR
ALREADY STARTING TO MODERATE BY THIS AFTERNOON UP SO IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE REALLY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY NEED FOR A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

TPA 086/067 087/069 0000
FMY 087/067 088/069 2000
GIF 085/066 087/067 0000
SRQ 086/067 087/071 0000
BKV 084/061 086/063 0000

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO
60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...EO