West Fla. mets not taking GOM/BOC lightly.....

[dixiebreeze]

Check out that marine advisory, too....

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
817 am EDT Thursday Oct 7 2004

Updated zones and marine forecast to increase winds today and
upgrade to a Small Craft Advisory. 12z Tampa sounding recorded 36 knots
winds at 1000 feet. At 8 am the research vessel suncoaster...located
64 nautical miles west of Bayport...reported 8 feet swells and seas 4
feet. Bouy 42036 recorded winds east 23g27 kts with seas 7.9 feet.

discussion...

Short term (today-sat)...high pressure over the Middle Atlantic States
will lift off to the northeast. This will allow a developing
area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf to move into the central
Gulf by the weekend. The ridge aloft over the Florida and the
eastern Gulf will begin to flatten, but the falling heights aloft
and falling surface pressures will not translate into increased rain
chances as dry air will advect into the 850 mb to 500 mb layer
Friday. This dry air will begin to mix out by Saturday, but not
fast enough to significantly increase rain chances until after the
short term period. I will strip out probability of precipitation for all but the feet Myers
area for today. The dry air will not make it down there until late. I
will also strip probability of precipitation for the entire area Friday and early Saturday.

For now I will not make big changes to the wind field but we will
have to closely monitor the developing low in the Bay of Campeche.

Long term (sat night-wed)...regardless of what develops to the
southwest...a large area of tropical moisture will advect over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday night and will spread over west
central and southwest Florida Sunday and Sunday night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop...with locally heavy rain
possible. How much rain will depend on how organized the system is
as it moves across the area. This could aggravate flooding in
areas that remain under water. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue Monday...with a few showers possible Monday night.
Surface high pressure will build over the region Tuesday and
Wednesday with clearing skies and generally dry conditions.
Temperatures will be above climatic norms through the period.

Marine...as surface pressures decrease moderate easterly flow
should decrease as well. As stated above though, we must monitor
pressures in the Gulf as a low moving into the central Gulf will
have an effect on the gradient winds.

[Sanibel]

Our local weatherman wasn't that concerned. He just mentioned that NHC said it was better organized and being watched and that it would move north.

That report only worries about rains. I don't see any call for a hurricane strike in there...

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey jlauderdal, Roland just came on and said that you need to take cover right away because its heading your way. Expect massive flooding he said. He said that he is very confident in his 5 day forecast.......

<RICKY>

[Brent]

Rain will be the problem, not wind.

[WeatherEmperor]

Rain will be the problem, not wind.

Thats exactly what Im affraid of no matter where it hits.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

We can handle rain here. We have a sand base and low elevation. Our ditches are starting to dry up after wet season right now. We are below average since Charley out here by about half. Lawn could use it since Charley took our irrigation system down indirectly by having the Bobcat claw loader wreck our front yard when they picked up our extensive tree piles...