12:00 Models for 95L=Ship intensity only goes up to 44kts

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cycloneye
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12:00 Models for 95L=Ship intensity only goes up to 44kts

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:23 am

Code: Select all


  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL952004) ON 20041007  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041007  1200   041008  0000   041008  1200   041009  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    21.7N  96.2W   23.6N  95.6W   25.4N  93.6W   27.3N  90.8W
  BAMM    21.7N  96.2W   23.2N  96.5W   24.6N  95.5W   25.8N  93.4W
  A98E    21.7N  96.2W   22.7N  96.0W   23.8N  95.2W   25.1N  93.7W
  LBAR    21.7N  96.2W   23.1N  96.5W   24.7N  96.2W   26.3N  95.7W
  SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          41KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          41KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041009  1200   041010  1200   041011  1200   041012  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    29.2N  87.4W   32.2N  78.9W   30.4N  66.2W   31.1N  53.1W
  BAMM    27.0N  90.9W   30.5N  86.5W   33.8N  82.6W   34.9N  75.9W
  A98E    26.5N  91.9W   30.7N  88.3W   34.6N  82.7W   33.1N  71.2W
  LBAR    27.4N  95.1W   29.4N  93.4W   31.3N  90.4W   30.8N  84.7W
  SHIP        44KTS          38KTS          26KTS           0KTS
  DSHP        44KTS          34KTS          27KTS           0KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  21.7N LONCUR =  96.2W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
  LATM12 =  21.0N LONM12 =  95.8W DIRM12 = 348DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
  LATM24 =  20.0N LONM24 =  95.8W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Last nights run ship intensity was 51kts but the main threat from this system will be the rain.
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#2 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:29 am

One thing to note, they are all trending eastward toward the Florida Panhandle area with an exception of LBAR.

Also, a 50mph wind will be a fairly significant problem from the Alabama Coasts through the Panhandle as most homes have some extent of roof damage and have plastic either stapled, taped or nailed down.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby Guest » Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:29 am

Finally looks like some decent surf coming. Puerto Rico could be all time.
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#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:57 am

Graphics of Tropical Model runs.......

Image
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ROCK
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#5 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:04 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Graphics of Tropical Model runs.......

Image




hmmm...the ETA, Euro, still show a upper TX coast event...
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#6 Postby dhweather » Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:12 am

This will be a fun one to watch. :)
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#7 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:20 am

Great.. another Florida storm lol
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#8 Postby dhweather » Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:22 am

Well, given that hte models have all been east,
that probably means LA/MS for this one.

Of course, I could be way off on this one. :lol:
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#9 Postby yoda » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:34 pm

ROCK wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Graphics of Tropical Model runs.......

Image




hmmm...the ETA, Euro, still show a upper TX coast event...


Why can't we have the UKMET? :lol:
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#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:35 pm

Hmm, maybe Subtropical Storm Nicole brewing?
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