10:30 AM EDT Storm2k Unofficially calling TD#14 in GOM

[cycloneye]

Although the National Hurricane Center hasn't upgraded yet the system in the Gulf of Mexico I am seeing it as a TD.Although the center is semiexposed to the left of the convection all indications from surface and sat images suggest that a TD has formed in the GOM.Confirmation of that will be made by recon early this afternoon and maybe by that time they may find a minimal tropical storm in the area.Shear levels haved decreased somewhat near where the center is and that may allow it to intensify a little in the next few hours.But the primary threat from it will be the copius amounts of rain that will fall in a wide area in the northern gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.Also with the slow movement the system is moving it will be a bad scenario those rains and those people who live in the coast should watch for flash floodings in your area.And tornadoes can also form as the system moves more closer to the coast and the folks should watch for those.The storm2k forecast team will continue to watch the events unfolding today and later this afternoon we will know more when recon collects the data.

Disclaimer=This forecast is exclusive from this forecaster and is not official.The official source is the National Hurricane Center.

Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)

[Guest]

Someone needs to block this it is wrong.

[cycloneye]

Look at disclaimer.It is my personnal call of it.Also MWatkins has called it a TD.

[Josephine96]

If he has a disclaimer on it.. There is nothing wrong with it

[CaneCurious]

I trust Luis and Mike. I think that the NHC is waiting too long to classify this storm, along with our local met, Gumm.

[cycloneye]

I trust Luis and Mike. I think that the NHC is waiting too long to classify this storm, along with our local met, Gumm.

Those who do forecasts sometimes take risks forecasting and I am at that level about this forecast.It is my call that the system is a TD right now but the NHC doesnt have it yet classifyed as a TD.If I am wrong with this call later this day well nobody is perfect but as a forecaster I have to call what I see at the time of the forecast.

[sponger]

i agree with ce and mw. NHC is playing conservative as its not like a cat 2 will be knocking on the door tommorow. I guess they figure (said before in another thread) that flooding can be handled by local. TS warnings will likely go up at 5:00. 24 hours prep for 40 mph winds should be plenty!

[HURAKAN]

I also believe it's a tropical depression or maybe a tropical storm as I write this words. The NHC is just waiting to see the RECON findings before making any statement. Doesn't matter if they upgraded at 11 AM or at 5 PM, they usually send a RECON, if possible, to confirm their assumptions. Because the RECON has already been planned, they are just waiting.

[dhweather]

Thank you Luis! You and Mike both concur with what I also believe, and that is TD #14 is in the GOM waiting to be declared such.

[vbhoutex]

You can add my agreement to the others. this is TS #14 imo also.

[fci]

I totally repect the prognosticataions and analysis by the Storm 2K forecasters. In fact, with prior storms MORE than the NHC!!!
But even given my strong faith; I still think that this system should be referred to as "Potential TD #14" or "Possible" or some other additional disclaimer to the one imbedded in the forecast Storm 2K is providing.
Little doubt that NHC will come to the party and name it as a TD and possible TS; but taking initiative to pre-name is a bit premature to me. IMHO

[cycloneye]

I totally repect the prognosticataions and analysis by the Storm 2K forecasters. In fact, with prior storms MORE than the NHC!!!
But even given my strong faith; I still think that this system should be referred to as "Potential TD #14" or "Possible" or some other additional disclaimer to the one imbedded in the forecast Storm 2K is providing.
Little doubt that NHC will come to the party and name it as a TD and possible TS; but taking initiative to pre-name is a bit premature to me. IMHO

Thank you for those words.I made a change at the heading to say unofficially.Although Disclaimer is clear but I made the change to not confuse some members that may be newbies.

[~SirCane]

Also bad for the Ivan survivors.

[hurricanedude]

500 mile spread of TS force winds....definately a subtropical system at this point IMO.....on its way to being tropical in the future however

[MGC]

It would be best to wait for the DNA (recon) report to come in. This thing could be a TD, STD, TS or STS right now. Looking at the sat this morning the call could go either way.....MGC

[~SirCane]

Dang, what a mess.

[tailgater]

I think they will find a elongated center(north -south) with winds in 30 to 35 knots to east of the center with slight chance to become a T.S. in the next 36 hrs.

[george_r_1961]

Looks like its getting sheared rather badly, the there is ample comvection so if the shear relaxes we could have something. Its a rain event nonetheless though.

[cycloneye]

Well not to be delighted but I made the call from this morning and if you go back and read my forecast it says that this afternoon it would be a tropical storm after recon reported back.