More action in atlantic,OTTO forming soon? 97L invest up

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

More action in atlantic,OTTO forming soon? 97L invest up

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:18 pm

Code: Select all

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SYSTEM
COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD WARMER WATER.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The above is the 5:30 PM TWO.HURAKAN or Sandy shared an excellent pic yesterday showing it and if it dips more south it well be OTTO so let's watch it.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:50 pm, edited 5 times in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
rainstorm

#2 Postby rainstorm » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:25 pm

very possible
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#3 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:27 pm

You see the storm here on the Upper right

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

97L Invest is also up now...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2044
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:35 pm

Wow, that was quick. It went from nothing to a possible entity. Let's see what happens...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

First model plots for 97L

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:55 pm

Code: Select all

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL972004) ON 20041011  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041011  1800   041012  0600   041012  1800   041013  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    33.8N  33.8W   31.7N  34.6W   29.7N  33.9W   29.1N  30.8W
  BAMM    33.8N  33.8W   32.2N  34.9W   30.5N  35.3W   29.4N  34.7W
  A98E    33.8N  33.8W   31.2N  36.1W   28.9N  35.5W   27.5N  31.9W
  LBAR    33.8N  33.8W   32.0N  34.8W   30.7N  35.1W   30.2N  34.6W
  SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          55KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          55KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041013  1800   041014  1800   041015  1800   041016  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    30.7N  27.6W   34.1N  27.2W   36.4N  30.6W   39.3N  32.1W
  BAMM    29.0N  32.8W   32.0N  29.4W   35.3N  31.5W   38.3N  34.4W
  A98E    27.4N  27.9W   27.3N  21.3W   27.0N  15.8W   26.1N  13.1W
  LBAR    30.2N  34.1W   31.3N  32.2W   32.7N  30.7W   33.3N  29.5W
  SHIP        61KTS          70KTS          73KTS          72KTS
  DSHP        61KTS          70KTS          73KTS          72KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  33.8N LONCUR =  33.8W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
  LATM12 =  36.4N LONM12 =  32.0W DIRM12 = 203DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
  LATM24 =  38.6N LONM24 =  31.5W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
kevin

#6 Postby kevin » Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:21 pm

Ships _really_ wants to intensify this!
0 likes   
Top
kevin

#7 Postby kevin » Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:24 pm

OMG! Watch out Western Sahara... A98 has its eyes on you. :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#8 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:41 pm

I said it, and is there!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#9 Postby feederband » Mon Oct 11, 2004 6:13 pm

well anyone have any thoughts on what possible otto may want to do.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 6:17 pm

feederband wrote:well anyone have any thoughts on what possible otto may want to do.


If Otto forms into a subtropical or tropical system it will not bother anyone as it will be a fish in the eastern atlantic as it will move along the perifery of the ridge SW,West,NW then to turn north. :fishing: :fishing: :fishing: :fishing: :fishing:

Eventually our friends in the UK will have to deal with this.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 6:56 pm

Code: Select all

  A
LARGE POWERFUL DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS NEAR 32N32W MOVING SSW INTO
THE AREA.  THE LOW NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH IT MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY WARM... AND WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE...WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOW FORMING AROUND THE
SYSTEM.


The above is the 8 PM discussion about 97L.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

00:00 UTC model suite

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:48 pm

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL972004) ON 20041012  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041012  0000   041012  1200   041013  0000   041013  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    33.0N  33.3W   31.3N  33.9W   30.0N  33.1W   30.3N  31.0W
  BAMM    33.0N  33.3W   31.8N  34.1W   30.9N  34.5W   30.4N  34.4W
  A98E    33.0N  33.3W   31.0N  34.7W   29.6N  34.1W   29.6N  31.4W
  LBAR    33.0N  33.3W   31.6N  33.8W   30.7N  33.8W   30.6N  33.6W
  SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          50KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          50KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041014  0000   041015  0000   041016  0000   041017  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    31.8N  29.5W   34.9N  31.0W   37.5N  34.0W   40.7N  34.1W
  BAMM    30.3N  33.8W   32.6N  32.2W   35.7N  33.3W   39.2N  34.8W
  A98E    31.1N  27.9W   31.9N  22.4W   31.4N  17.9W   29.7N  16.1W
  LBAR    30.9N  33.2W   31.8N  32.0W   32.8N  31.3W   32.9N  29.4W
  SHIP        55KTS          64KTS          68KTS          65KTS
  DSHP        55KTS          64KTS          68KTS          65KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  33.0N LONCUR =  33.3W DIRCUR = 210DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
  LATM12 =  35.2N LONM12 =  32.0W DIRM12 = 194DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
  LATM24 =  37.5N LONM24 =  31.5W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  125NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
rainstorm

#13 Postby rainstorm » Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:20 pm

threat to hatteras?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:21 pm

rainstorm wrote:threat to hatteras?


No not at all.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:31 pm

Code: Select all

ABNT20 KNHC 120227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 570 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND BUT WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES TOWARD WARMER WATER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
michaelwmoss
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 558
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:56 am
Location: New Whiteland, IN
Contact:
Contact michaelwmoss

#16 Postby michaelwmoss » Mon Oct 11, 2004 11:29 pm

I agree with the post about it getting pulled around the ridge and it basically being a "Fish" storm.

It is still a very well defined "Cold" core system. There is only minor T-storm activity around the center at this point in time.

Could change though. I have been wrong before :)
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Teban54 and 288 guests