Shear favorable in Caribbean and DECREASING!
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Anonymous
Shear favorable in Caribbean and DECREASING!
Last edited by Anonymous on Sun Oct 24, 2004 10:47 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
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senorpepr
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Well, the cyclonic turning aloft doesn't help. Ridging from the W Atl and the GOM doesn't help. Proximity to land doesn't help. The fact that the trough approaching the Windward Islands is very weak and that it's approaching a nonfavorable area (the ridging in the low- to mid-levels) doesn't help it's chances when it gets to the SW Carib.
Yes, there are plenty of positive factors toward development, but the negative factors away from development don't help. Remember, if you're missing a key ingredient to the storm, you'll be let down.
Yes, there are plenty of positive factors toward development, but the negative factors away from development don't help. Remember, if you're missing a key ingredient to the storm, you'll be let down.
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weatherwindow
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patience, FB, patience.....caribbean dev is notoriously slow for all the reasons noted above. i agree that things will be considerably less hostile than it has been over the last month. the gfs has been very consistent in developing and maintaining a broad low and persistent convection in the sw carib during the first week of nov. several transient circulations attempt to spin up. certainly, the longer those unsettled conditions persist, the greater the chance of something eventually making it. a cautionary note: of all the models, the gfs, is most likely to spin up a trop low. friends of mine in the nws call it "the Disney model". convective feedback and all that. yet even the gfs has failed to predict any significant development in the carib thru the forecast cycle. ...patience, FB, patience:)
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Re: Shear favorable in Caribbean and DECREASING!
The good thing is if something were to form in the Caribbean. Thats a big if!
It would move either North then Northeast away from the US. OR Head Westward into Central America. Big blocking ridge over the GOM and Eastern Seaboard will not allow this to be any threat to the US.
Still I don't see anything forming in the Caribbean there is just no inverted troughs or any convection around the Cut-off Low & the frontal boundary extending from it.
Beautiful Weather in the GOM and Eastern Seaboard. I think after this batch of convection gets out of town and heads North we can lay Hurricane Season 2004 to rest.
It would move either North then Northeast away from the US. OR Head Westward into Central America. Big blocking ridge over the GOM and Eastern Seaboard will not allow this to be any threat to the US.
Still I don't see anything forming in the Caribbean there is just no inverted troughs or any convection around the Cut-off Low & the frontal boundary extending from it.
Beautiful Weather in the GOM and Eastern Seaboard. I think after this batch of convection gets out of town and heads North we can lay Hurricane Season 2004 to rest.
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