Will 93L be named Otto Today?

[chadtm80]

I don't have words that would not get me banned from this site for this. I don't care this will always be the unname storm to me for my records.

You have only been here three days, how do you know what would get you banned?

[tallywx]

What an abomination! Compare this system to "Tropical Trough Grace" in the Gulf last year!

[Hyperstorm]

OK, let me understand this. They're saying that "the associated thunderstorm activity has diminished"? OK.... The system is over 22*C water temperatures. How can they expect the thunderstorm activity to persist longer than what it has in those waters??? The system is doing all it can right now. You have to look at the overall dynamics and pattern and see what is truly generating those thunderstorms and it's NOT baroclinicity...

If my thinking is correct, the system should ALSO miss this upcoming trough and start moving toward the SW over the next few days with a high pressure build-up to its north. If that occurs, it will move over warmer waters and please the people at the NHC...

[Wnghs2007]

Ugh. Why wont they upgrade. Its been a storm of some kind for atleast the last 2 days.

[Derek Ortt]

ALL indications are for this to move out to sea. This isnt going to come to the west

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek, I thought the nhc job was to forecast/name or number all tropical cyclones that form in the Atlantic,Eastern pacific? Yes storms that threating land should be looked at closer but these storms also impact shipping lanes/The record books...

[Stormsfury]

Still a strong gale center, until an OFFICIAL UPGRADE is issued ... still no cigar from the NHC, and still listed as an invest on NRL ...

One issue at hand, which will work in either direction ...

on WV imagery, there's a s/w (disturbance) in the mid-levels observed undercutting the invest right now (and almost on the southern side of the system already). What this MAY serve to do, is completely cut off any source of cooler, stable air into 93L as the underlying s/w intercepts it into its circulation ... (much like seen in the 1994 Christmas Storm with a strong s/w in the Southeastern States robbing the Christmas storm of arctic air)

But at the same time, it could also in turn be a moisture robber and disrupt the inflow just enough for 93L to be unable to break the threshold ... it's a coin flip ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Hyperstorm]

That is what most of the computer models are saying (quickly heading toward the north), but I'm not buying their solution. They shoot the system to the north too quickly and it has NOT occured. Right now, the trough near the maritimes of Canada is bypassing to its NW and the system remains nearly stationary.

Let's see what transpires over the next 24 hours to have a better idea of what will happen. Of course, I'm not expecting it to go any further west than Bermuda at this time...

[Hyperstorm]

Still a strong gale center, until an OFFICIAL UPGRADE is issued ... still no cigar from the NHC, and still listed as an invest on NRL ...

One issue at hand, which will work in either direction ...

on WV imagery, there's a s/w (disturbance) in the mid-levels observed undercutting the invest right now (and almost on the southern side of the system already). What this MAY serve to do, is completely cut off any source of cooler, stable air into 93L as the underlying s/w intercepts it into its circulation ... (much like seen in the 1994 Christmas Storm with a strong s/w in the Southeastern States robbing the Christmas storm of arctic air)

But at the same time, it could also in turn be a moisture robber and disrupt the inflow just enough for 93L to be unable to break the threshold ... it's a coin flip ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Good comments. The system has likely been a subtropical cyclone for the past 24-48 hours. The transition hasn't stopped and it's quite possible that the first advisory on it will have it as a tropical storm, skipping OFFICIAL subtropical status. You're right in saying that officially it's still a gale center, but in my mind it is a low pressure area with tropical characteristics.

The same event occured with Olga, just to name an example. The system was operationally classified a tropical cyclone 2 days after the best-track indicated such transformation...

[cycloneye]

Agree Hyperstorm about this low being a cyclone subtropical or tropical for better than 24 hours ago.Let's see what happens this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1000 MB GALE CENTER IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31.5N50.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW
FROM THE GALE TO 20N57W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE GALE EXCEPT OVER THE E QUADRANT.

The above is from the 1:05 PM EST discussion.It says that convection surrounds the gale low distint of what the TWO said at 11:30 AM.

[cycloneye]

According to the floater pics you decide if this is a sub or tropical storm already or not.

My take is that maybe less convection on the northeast side but apart from that it looks like a true storm.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL932004) ON 20041130 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041130 1800 041201 0600 041201 1800 041202 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.7N 51.0W 31.9N 50.9W 30.7N 50.2W 29.7N 49.0W
BAMM 31.7N 51.0W 32.0N 50.9W 31.2N 50.2W 30.4N 49.4W
A98E 31.7N 51.0W 32.3N 50.6W 31.9N 50.1W 31.9N 47.9W
LBAR 31.7N 51.0W 32.6N 50.7W 32.8N 49.7W 32.9N 48.4W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 44KTS 41KTS
DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 44KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041202 1800 041203 1800 041204 1800 041205 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.2N 47.2W 30.5N 41.8W 33.5N 38.0W 36.6N 31.2W
BAMM 29.7N 48.5W 28.9N 45.2W 28.7N 42.1W 26.7N 40.9W
A98E 31.8N 46.0W 33.5N 42.0W 35.9N 38.0W 38.9N 31.4W
LBAR 32.8N 47.1W 32.6N 43.7W 32.1N 38.0W 35.8N 36.0W
SHIP 37KTS 25KTS 15KTS 0KTS
DSHP 37KTS 25KTS 15KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 51.0W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 30.9N LONM12 = 50.5W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 30.2N LONM24 = 48.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 250NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 250NM

Some of the models takes this to the SW as a member said at this thread moving into more warmer waters if this verifies.

[tallywx]

I think maybe NHC should start contracting with the Brazilian Weather Service...you know, the one that still refuses to call their S. American hurricane "Catalina" a hurricane. Oh yeah, it was cold core according to them...no matter that it had a CDO, eye, and quickly dissipated when it landfalled.

[Hyperstorm]

ROMFL..........Good one.

[Wnghs2007]

I think maybe NHC should start contracting with the Brazilian Weather Service...you know, the one that still refuses to call their S. American hurricane "Catalina" a hurricane. Oh yeah, it was cold core according to them...no matter that it had a CDO, eye, and quickly dissipated when it landfalled.

LOL...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the nhc read that in got mad in finnally upgraded.

[Wnghs2007]

I think the nhc read that in got mad in finnally upgraded.

LOL... Yeah.